UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.

aye were looking at the morn and sun fella. got some extremely high bases appearing here with nice cauliflower tops. looks nice but not gonna get crap all from it.

just topped up the fridge with beer and the mrs is getting me another crate from asda

just had a quick skoot over the 12z run and it looks slightly better for sunday.

CAPE and LI for sat 1800


SLP for sat 1800
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100625/12/30/airpressure.png

CAPE and LI for sun 1800
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100625/12/54/ukcapeli.png

SLP for sun 1800
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100625/12/54/airpressure.png

I think that Saturday chart would be the more realistic looking from GFS in all honesty in terms of cape and li values.
It also matches the areas highlighted by UKASF.

I'm not totally convinced with the weakening cold front though though come Saturday a better idea of how things are likely to turn out

Great to see you straight in on discussion KentW!

Those values have dropped off slightly haven't they from the beginning of the week. All weekend off now as if 22:30 this eve so when I get home I'll have a good look on here.

I commented before about how in the UK we are only able to really get a realistic picture of what will happen very close to the actual time itself. And yet you will see Dr Forbes in the USA giving forecasts and warnings for Tornadoes maybe 4 or even 5 days out. Its something ive never been able to comprehend.

Accepted that the weather patterns there are certainly much more aggressive with numbers that we can only dream of here so maybe its easier to predict events ?
Also i would think that given the severe weather they have the Models are maybe more accurate and need to be that way as well. Missing a large nado outbreak isnt something they can afford to mis-forecast as the result of that could be catostrophic.
On the flip side of that here in the UK Severe Weather isnt an issue so maybe our Models reflect that as well ? Just always bugs me

If youve seen the BBC weather today there is only a passing word on anything stormwise and yet Watches are being issued elsewhere...doesnt make sense to me.

Mini Rant over.....

[off-topic i know, please excuse]
Ty Wazza! Nothing like jumping in with both feet and getting straight down to business! Plus it's a very welcoming forum here and I feel quite at home already. The more well known forums tend to flame new people for trying their hand at posting thoughts, I've not sensed that here which makes it more welcoming to post.

Being back on topic there's bound to be further downgrading over the next 3 runs of the values I'd imagine. As we all seem to be aware GFS will overdo the CAPE/Li then slowly ease off until its something a little more reasonable. 1000j/kg still remains plausible even on Saturday evening runs. Closer attention on Sundays 06z.

One good thing to note though - Good consistency through-out the previous days.

Looks like I need to move to the E. Midland's as they seem to be the ideal area so far

Thanks for the comments there, very much appreciated.
No prima donnas, experts or know it alls here, just not what we want.
Open discussion with views from everyone always makes things more enjoyable.
The fact that at this point in time we are small in number does help im sure. Ive glanced over Netweathers forum before and went no further, just didnt like what i was reading, too much point scoring going on there.

As far as storms, here in Somerset has been the wrong place to be last year and so far this year as well. Prepared to travel but need these numbers to give a more favourable outlook than scattered storms.

Every run of GFS will be studied this weekend

Quick SAT image giving a broader overview of things.
Obviously not a lot happening over mainland UK but you can see the area of Low Pressure showing in the top L/H corner of this image.



Looks to be few areas on mainland Europe enjoying some storms at the moment but id would rather not discuss that any further here right now

we know what we know and always help eachother out. between us all im sure we will gain more knowledge and get a stronger grip on the UK's atmosphere and weather patterns.

the low is very clear to see and the cold front is there too. the storms over europe just take the double S!! see what estofex say in the morning i suppose.

Well im just about set in saying that not a lot will happen over the weekend.
Parts of N Ireland and areas in the NW and Scotland look to be the best bets but even then i really cant see much in the way of organised storms forming.
This Low willl only offer weak fronts which will soon be pushed N/NW by the ridges of High that push in from the S/SW.
Always a chance of a shower here and there with the odd one being heavy but nothing of great interest.

Sad to say that and i hope im wrong.

So do I but I think you're right mate.

Looked at the stuff here and yes looks to be a non-event. Darn!

Synopsis
Situation at 12z Saturday: upper trough slowly edges east to the west of Ireland, with slow-moving surface low around 995mb to the west of Ireland and associated cold front lying Malin Head to Cork. Upper ridge lies E and SE of UK with high pressure around 1020mb over N Sea. By 00z Sunday, weakening cold front lies Isle of Skye to Cornwall. UK lies under a slack warm and increasingly moist southerly flow through the period.

… EAST WALES, W MIDLANDS, N ENGLAND, SCOTLAND and NORTHERN IRELAND …

Heavy showers may develop in a corridor of western UK roughly from the upper Severn Estuary north through the West Midlands, parts of N England and on up across parts of Scotland during Saturday afternoon. This convection will develop as increasingly moist boundary layer warms into the mid 20s degrees C and wind convergence zone(s) develop over the western side of the UK in the afternoon – which combined with height falls from the west will provide lift to release a few to several 100 j/kg CAPE – more particularly along/near convergence zones. Limiting factor to thunderstorm development will be poor lapse rates – however strong convergence maybe sufficient to produce isolated sferics in the stronger convective cells. Deep layer shear looks to increase from the west through the day to around 30 knots – which will be sufficient for multicell convective development … bringing potential of gusty winds and small hail. Main risk will be excessive localised rainfall – which may lead to some localised flooding. Convection will tend to be diurnally driven, so showers or storms will tend to die out after dark. A weak tornado or funnel clouds cannot be ruled from cells along wind convergence zones.

Cold front moving east across Ireland, though weakening, may along with local wind convergence provide enough lift to release potential instability across northern half of the Ireland for a few heavy showers or isolated t-storms in the afternoon. Risks will be the same as across Mainland UK.

courtesy of netweather.tv

Just thought i'd upload this one from the Met Office - take a look at "The Wash" area...

Dust! Anybody.... Dust!

hehehe.....eat my dust! thats madness.

the midlands should see a wee touch of the good stuff today. still think theres potential in tomorrow for me to get my first storm of the year.....maybe....hopefully.......OH GOD PLEASE!!!!

Just back from work and sitting here just a touch " tacky ", boy was it hot out there today posting all that rubbish through peoples doors

So we have a DUST watch...never seen that before on any UK weather map.
Kind of ironic in that it was only yesterday i posted those vids of the Dust Storms
Maybe there was a message there somewhere, well strange !

Going back to todays set up, obviously the Netweather detail is way and above any detail that i have previously listed but just about says the same thing as far as favoured areas for any storms today. There will certainly be a bit going out there today so may be worthwhile keeping a check on SAT, Radar and Trackers as a decent shower could just about pop up anywhere away from the main areas of focus.
I wont rattle on about being in th wrong area again though.....BUT I AM

Not looked at tomorrow yet but i would assume that things will not have changed that much and there will still be a possibility of storms in similar areas. Need to have a look and see. But JP at this point in time you look to have the best chance perhaps along with Graham and Marianne ?

But at least its nice out, may get mine out in a minute

posting rubbish through peoples doors eh?

dont think were to far out with our predictions and yup eyes will be on the trackers soon. totally obscured with cloud here but its got that feeling about it.
may crack a beer open and keep an eye on things

mate, you just keep yours covered up eh, dont want to be reading about you being arrested for flegging the life out of the old ladies....... again

Really cant think where this me and old ladies thing comes from, i shall blame Wazza me thinks, yep he will do

Fair bit of cloud bubbling up here now but nothing that looks anywhere near actually doing anything. Again a few areas in Ireland seeing a few heavy showers already. Just a touch early yet and would expect things to get going ( if they are ) in a few hours and then into the evening.
Only had a little look at tomorrow but doesnt look too bad for you and wouldnt be surprised if there were a few storms not that far away...you lucky person
Certainly more chances of something a little more widespread but again still in the same areas as today which was expected anyway.

So Wazza has booked Monday off in the hope that during Sunday and into the night there may be some storms, umm better find something else to do mate.
Got the footie sunday afternoon. See we could have gone down Chesil early moro morning, bashed out some Mackeral and then taken a trip to local boozer and got pie-eyed and rowdy watching the game
I think the above may well be my plans for the day anyway

aye, blame the wazz its the whole postie thing mate, we all know the oldies love the posties

tommorrow dont look to bad but theres always the chance of it being more widespread than localised. i'll be hoping and praying and keeping everything crossed. just hope the cold front dont weaken all together and leave us wondering what could have been....again. the shear looks good so lets hope!

hoping that danielles new spinning rod turns up so we can go have a cast sometime next week as shes working the next 4days. im sure the wazz is just gonna get rubbered for the fitba tomorrow

Heres the latest SAT image.
Showing the Low off the West of the UK nicely but as you can see anything thats inland is now a fairly weak affair so no surprise things are looking as they are.
Needs much more to it and be situated way to the East.



And as a comparrison, heres the SLP graphic for just about the same time frame.

Been total madness on Chesil this week for the Mackeral.
People have been pulling them out in silly numbers, 6 a time on the feathers.
Ok for 5 minutes that but who needs 100s of em anyway, well a fishmonger maybe but im sure most get wasted. More fun using a float or a spinner/plug.
I mean they are basically mini-tuna, cracking fight on light gear

Wazza, dont like footie as far as i know, prefers Polo and Crown Green Bowls he said, bit posher up M Keynes way mate

Oh yes the weather....umm...yeah

i hear ya mate, cant beat the makkie on light gear. i use 8lb breaking strain and always spin for them, using the feathers is just butchery.

bowls and polo followed by cucumber sanwiches and scones. posh git

the weather..............hmmmmm

Yeah the progs for storms are average to say the least. They mentioned lapse rates and that is in agreement. It means weak updrafts but you'll get maybe a rumble with the convective stuff. Good shear for them to mention tornadoes or funnels and the surface low is the indicator - chase the tails coming to you!...try and located the best wind/convergence areas guys and chase that - you may get lucky, but you will have to keep on it in that area and try and nowcast the areas of convergence in the prime region.

Just for the hell of it....



Wont be able to keep tabs of things for a few hours now not that we will see anything down this way anyway.
Back later.

Looks like a few cells have brewed up to my NW and SW. not showing any activity with them tho but would'nt be suprised if they had a few rumbles within them. hope the ones to my SW keep tracking NE towards me. the wind has got up here over the last hour or two and is fair blowing, dose'nt seem to have a set direction tho.

will continue to track them on the radar and keep an eye on the trackers as there in 500/700 j/kg and the LI is currently -2 to my west. the CIN is being eaten away so will keep a close eye on things and see how they develop.

Had my first look at things for a while and can see exactly what you are referring to there JP. Couple of heavy showers approaching the Durham area i think it is.
But overall so far its been an absolute non-event just for a change and im saying that UK wide as well.

Still a bit of time but once things start cooling off a little for me that will be it.
Tomorrows another day and can only hope that things are better than today.
For me it will be a non-weather day as im sure i can find other things to waste my time on

yup, Durham it is mate. its very clammy and sticky at the mo and just feels yuk! there still tracking this way but may miss me, hope not tho, could do with the air clearing.

tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow.........not going to look at the models anymore, just gonna wait and see what happens

time for another beer me thinks