UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 23/05/10

This really hurts for me to say this!

Possible isolated thunderstorms may develop across eastern counties today pushing south into London and the SE.

It hurts as i'm working all day! No chance to get anything on camera should anything fire up. Damn!

STORMS......where

Not looked at anything for a couple of days as ive been a touch busy so not sure what was expected today. Although as we all know its been a very hot day today with temps likely to break the 30C in a few places. Managed 26 here today and still showing as 24 now as i type.
But for all the hope over the weekend of something storm wise i think im safe in saying very very little happened at all unless ive missed something ?

Will have a quick look at Radars now to see if anything is going on out there and maybe Wazza is enjoying a birthday storm, albeit from inside a train cab

Will attempt to get this weeks mini forecast up this evening but if not i will post it after work tomorrow. Fishing on a Sunday eh...

Seeing signs that something may just happen here a little later this afternoon/evening. High Res NMM is showing some rather favourable numbers and given its only a few hours away now i do have some hope.
Already seeing a few small areas starting to look interesting although a long way to go before i even think of getting out after anything.
Also seeing a Watch issued by Estofex so you never know.

Lets wait and see shall we

Will also get mini forecast up later....unless of course...schhhhh !

Nothing wrong with being hopeful i suppose, NMM looks reasonable as ive said and Estofex are giveing a less than 30% chance on their latest watch.
So maybe more disappointment is on the cards ?

The Watch is worth a read as talk of some of these Storms turning Supercelluar, but yes you guessed it...in France of course....very very small chance of something brushing the South Coast.

Jo its certainly worth keeping an eye on things.

So heres the Watch details...

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-05-24 23:33:00
Valid: 2010-05-25 00:00:00 - 2010-05-25 23:59:00

Regions Affected
(CS, SW & SE England included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

An area of HIGH pressure to the northwest of the United Kingdom, and a developing broad area of LOW pressure over Biscay, will dominate the weather on Tuesday.

A cool but stable northerly flow becomes established across the United Kingdom, so very little activity is expected. However, attention turns to the boundary between the cool airmass and the hot and humid airmass, which will be present over northern France. This, coupled with cyclogenesis, will provide focus for numerous thunderstorms to develop along the warm, cold and occluded fronts across this region during the afternoon. Such storms are likely to turn supercellular at times, capable of producing a weak-moderate tornado.

Consistent trends are for these to move northeastwards during the afternoon and evening, moving across southern portions of the English Channel but staying offshore from mainland Britain. There is a very low risk of these grazing the south coast (<10% chance). Also, there is a low risk of an isolated thunderstorm over parts of Southwest England (<30% chance) during the late afternoon/evening.

We will monitor the situation during Tuesday


Edit....not a lot happening so far here but will continue to watch radar and SAT images and maybe make a run down to the South Coast later if these storms do fire over the channel. A chance of seeing something then maybe ?
Some good storms currently over France as forecast, just that few 100 miles too far south....

We had the teeniest tiny bit of drizzle around 2.30pm - must have been the edge of things passing us by - not even enough to wash the dust off the cars! Bright and sunny now. Not as hot as yesterday but still lovely. There is thunder about though - you can feel it in the air. Won't see anything this afternoon, may be much later tonight. Nice couple of storms over France though!!!


Pic: Sat24.com

There's a lot going on in France right now. Nice storm in NE France, pushing NE. Now way I could have gotten there!

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Everywhere but here!

Did I mention it's here!

Sorry can't provide pics of last night. It was good to see something though. Lots of lightning, albeit covered by the clouds most of the time, a few rumbles and then off it went again. That so often happens here...we just catch the edge of the storms in France. It was making it's way up towards south to south/east coast so someone may see something today. Good luck!

Glad to see you saw some action Jo! Certainly some nice looking storms showing up on radar last night.

I know we have showers forecast for today, but I've not peeked at GFS yet to see if there is a chance of T/Storms developing.

Well... Just had that quick peek and nothing! Instability is non existant, and everything coming from the north.

Never mind eh!

More showers today for northern areas, some of these could contain the odd rumble of thunder. Nothing showing on radar as yet though!

It's been a right mix of showers and sunshine up here today! Hard to know whether to put the rain jacket on, or the t-shirt! Gotta love the Scottish summer!

Hehe yeah I can go with that!

Some persistant rain pushing across today, good for my really dry garden!

Looks like we're one of the few places where it's not raining at present!

was thinking the same thing wazza mate, its only good for the dry garden and it saves me going out with the watering can veggies are loving it thats about it really. as usual good ole crappy british weather