UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July

Just getting caught up on this thread now (darn work!) and sounds like we could be in for an interesting day. A very wet start up here so far with almost 14mm of rain locally. Right now it feels too overcast to produce any decent diurnal heating, but who knows what might happen later on. The sat pics indicate we could get a few breaks in the cloud later, but not sure we'll see anything exciting up this way. As always, fingers crossed!

Well in just under an hour that area that was 30 miles away from here has been and gone. Didnt have to drive far as it was well on its way.
And all i saw was one large wet mess, poor visibilty and no chance of seeing any structure at all.
Now sunny again but im sure it will be sunshine and showers all the way from here. Just hope that its not all like what ive just seen though, useless for any pictures.
Still reasonbly early though so will just keep watching things.


France already seeing active storms pop up, no change there then

just taken this from UKASF.co.uk

Deep area of Low pressure "Olivia" (FU Berlin) drifts slowly across Ireland during Wednesday, dominating the weather across the United Kingdom.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across a large portion of the THUNDERSTORM threat area in response to daytime heating and increasing instability. Moderate-sized hail is possible in any stronger cells, and there is an increased risk of locally severe weather across the east/northeast of England during the evening hours with a threat of a moderate tornado. Locally high rainfall totals are possible from persistent, torrential downpours. Showers will also contain locally strong gusty winds.

Showers are forecast to progressively decrease in coverage during the second half of the evening hours, becoming largely limited to coastal regions.

only one thing to say to that mate........viva le france

as soon as the fog cleared here convection started happening, seen some nice structure and its moving fast. as soon as one cell passes and moves away another starts forming to the SW. got the stream up and running and just gonna leave it going. should start to see the good stuff soon......hopefully

Ever the optimist...not ...im beginning to wonder if much is going to happen at all.
Looking a total non-event again down here and still not seeing much at all anywhere else. Yes some heavy showers, most of them small and short lived as well, certainly nothing of note.
Ok its not quite 13.00 but with all forecasts stating that things will die off into the evening time is running out slowly.

Lightning trackers still showing nothing for the UK either.
Not totally given up hope but im getting that sinking feeling again ( Titanic playing in the background )


Just watched BBC forecast and they are not mentioning much at all in the way of storms either. But does show some very heavy rain making its way here later tomorrow.....weather....PUH

Latest SAT image...pick what you can out of this.....



And Radar...



France.......

i see TORRO have issue a tornado watch for up here.......


TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2010/002 and TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/006

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 09:20GMT on Wednesday 14th July 2010

Valid from/until: 09:20 – 2200GMT on Wednesday 14th July 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

England

Wales

S Scotland

THREATS

Tornadoes; hail to 15mm diameter; CG lightning; wind gusts

SYNOPSIS

Slow-moving upper low lies close to SW Eire, with associated surface low in a similar position. Moist, unstable rPm airmass over the WATCH area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, and with low LCLs and reasonable (15-20 knots) of 0-1km bulk shear, there is a risk of a few tornadoes. The highest risk appears to be across northern England and southern Scotland this afternoon/evening, where backed surface INVOF surface cold front increases low-level shear. Deep layer shear is sufficient for organised multicell storms, and small lines of storms could develop through the day. Low-level mesocyclones are possible across N England/S Scotland, with the backed surface flow.

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 09:20GMT on Wednesday 14th July 2010

surface winds are picking up a tad here and seen some nice structure but no lightning anywhere. im under the clouds building on the E coast on that sat pic. wish it would get a bloody move on and decide what the hell it wants to do

You and me both JP, i will not Doom and Gloom it any more for now

And i need not say ANYTHING about this.....

its a pretty depressing picture that on!! one minute it looks good here then the next it looks like s***!

if you've had a look at the stream you'll know what i mean! it'll probably wait till i go on the school wander then let loose

so far nothing here in st neots (cambs) it feels quite mugy outside, but as already mentioned, the charts look quite depressing!

looks like storms are firing in france at the moment, and they seem to be heading north over the english channel so maybe something later?

If I weren't currently sat at work I'd probably be heading to the Kent coast, perhaps Dover area. The forecast was of this possible supercellular storm clipping the coast, and with some real intense rainfall and lightning showing on the tracker it'd be a good bet.

Also there is a nice stream filling in behind that too. Just one option there lol!

Looking at radar there is a gradual increase in the heavy showers.
But still very widespread and most look to be quite small. So many will it wont its that i really do not have clue whats likely to happen now.
No doubt a few will give some thunder but as far as something turning out to be an event of any sorts i just cant see it somehow.

Still plenty of activity making its way across the channel as you say and some of that will make landfall here but again will it really get active ?
Mainland France still the place to be.

Certainly still worth keeping a watch on the radar for a few hours yet.
I have seen some talk of some activity along the S Coast into the evening/night so again can only watch and hope.

Now wheres my Extreme Knitting needles to

Mark Hamilton wrote:

looks like storms are firing in france at the moment, and they seem to be heading north over the english channel so maybe something later?

They're taking a NNE path which is also backed up by the 500hPa wind vectors. The large mass due north of Paris will skim the Kent coastline, new cells over Jersey will be the one to watch probably arriving (for those interested in the South's event's...) somewhere between Southampton and Brighton - provided they last the swim across the channel of course

Umm....JEEZ

now what you go and post that for???? "spits his dummy out of the pram and stamps his feet!!"

we keep getting bands of fog blowing in here and killing the atmosphere hence why i've shut the stream down

thats where the fronts where at an hour ago.....

http://www.meteorologica.info/UKisobars.htm

British weather is starting to take the Micky lol we just had a brief rain shower but nothing more. We have had no real sunshine so far today to warm the air up just feels slightly muggy under this cloud cover. Thanks Shaun for letting me kno what's going on down in Kent looks like that's the place to be this evening again! I am getting bored of nothing happening. Maybe this lull in activity(well no activity all year) is a sign on big storms to come at some stage, we can only hope!

my thoughts exactly mark. good ol british weather still sucks

surface winds are getting fairly gusty here but cant see a single cloud now as we have yet another covering of fog

Fog this time of the day! That reminds me of the fog the blanketed the uk for a week a couple of years ago! It's pretty clear here at the moment just cloud cover. I keep checking the radar on my phone and looks like I might be in for a heavy band of rain in a hour or so. I use "weather pro" or the iPhone.

its a right manky grey day here now! i wonder if the activity starting to show on the trackers is a sign that the low pressure system has finally decided to move and its starting to interact with the trough???

theres still hope out there yet.............(i think )

I am just walking to the shop and is thundering here guys I'll get a photo of the sky on my walk home

Well we just had a extre torrential downpour here got some pics
Of the clouds they look viscous. I can here some thunder but not
Loads. As I popped into the co op the lights
Flickered and a loud rumble of thunder was heard. Sorry for a few spelling errors just I am soaked and getting changed into
Dry clothes lol

alright for some lol. looks like the trough has kicked in and setting things off, just need it to push more E. wonder if i might get some night time lightning or is that asking to much?

think ju is out there doing his thing just now, looks as if theres a few cells popping down his way. stupid low pressure was in no rush to move but think we gonna get what we all wanted now.

here are the photos i just quickly took

more to come if anything develops






WOW just a huge clap of thunder

It's now got extremely dark here and some big dark clouds have come across. Just starting to rain again. They have come at me from the west from what I can make out