UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 4th July.

Well it is July and still no storms!

We are not the only ones wondering why this is happening, other forums also looking for answers too.

We seem to be well stuck in this Atlantic westerly airflow at the moment with warm air in the SE staying put and keeping any form of rain at bay. The ground is dry, the grass is yellow and a few field fires have been burning in the countryside. I've not known it this dry for some time now.

Into this week, warm spells are set to continue in the south with temps in the low - mid 20's, whilst the north and west may see more in the way of wet weather through the week with systems set to try and push in from the west. These are not set to reach more eastern areas as the warm dry air will keep them at bay, so for us in the south, warm, dry and not much in the way of wet stuff.

Still no storms then.

24hrs later.....

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kentonline/news/2010/july/5/tornado_hits_kent.aspx

Funnel clouds reported over Kent! YAYYYYYYY

Learn something new every day here, funnel clouds with no instability?

Convergence of sea breezes then. Nice one Kent!

Convergance zone from sea breezes as Kent has 3 sided coastline.

AND!!!!!! a Kent radio station has contacted me via email wanting to do a short pre-recorded interview on funnel clouds and tornadoes!

Cool that mate!

I applied to the local paper to get an interview regarding severe weather and this forum and they weren't interested - too snobby up here lol!

Keep us informed on the progress there dude.

I hear possibilities of storms later on in the weekend....

I heard the same! Which means it'll be close to Leicester for storm initiation then Peterborough and surrounding areas for storms as has been the case so far this year.

Talk of Kent seeing storms too but ill wait n see

Yeah supposed to be down this way, too early to start shouting as yet but deffo keeping an eye on - bout time eh!

I heard it was going to be late Sunday into Monday...

EDIT: Looking a bit of a mess at the moment, looking at GFS, no instability forecast as yet although this could change. We still have this ridge of high pressure sticking its nose up from France into the weekend, then a cold front moves across, with high pressure building again behind it.

Now if we were in France!!!! They are getting loads of storms this year, one after another. This is all being kept well at bay by different Low pressure systems sitting to the NW of us. Darn!

GFS doesn't really paint a pretty picture on this mornings 06z cape/li it was going for roughly those days but this morning its all pretty non-existent.

It must be seeing a cap in place i would hazard a guess at or the cold front just isnt strong enough to give any instability or the forcing.

My "hopecasting" for storms across the UK wants to throw the 6z away due to the previous overall consistency thats been shown besides this morning. I'm really unsure.

Locally here for Kent I keep hearing the letters MCS uttered for Sunday evening. NAO puts any precip too far East for a decent shot, unsurprisingly the eastward shift of excitment follows this years pattern lol

Yeah I'll be deffo keeping tabs on the weekend. I did see a shortwave trough flinging about that cold front too but it looks as though that cold front will prob fall to bits.

I like your hopecasting too, pretty much all we can do at the mo eh! Nothing is organised this year at all. Seems we are stuck in a real strong weather pattern that doesn't want to let anything in. France getting hammered, north of Britain, Ireland and Scotland getting a soaking and us just stuck in the middle. Something has to give! Stuff as we have mentioned trying to break in from the west but seems to hit this wall of heat and die.

Synopsis
Broad upper-level trough remains in place to the west of the UK/Ireland during Saturday, with a SW'erly flow transporting NE warm moist Tm airmass. At the surface, a frontal wave stretching from Scotland to S Ireland/E Atlantic early Saturday will develop a surface low which will lie across SW Ireland at 12z moving NE to lie SW Scotland by 00z Sunday with cold front moving E into western UK late Saturday.

… IRELAND, S SCOTLAND & N ENGLAND …

Developing low along frontal boundary on the forward side of sharpening upper trough to the west of Ireland will deepen and move NE across Ireland during Saturday. Fairly modest potential instability in warm moist Tm airmass is modelled to develop near this low and along/ahead of associated cold front. Rather saturated profiles and general cloudiness with stratiform rainfall around the low may inhibit any widespread convection, though some stronger ascent along cold front combined with upper-level divergence in vicinity of jet streak aloft may be sufficient for some isolated embedded cb with risk of isolated weak thunderstorms across Ireland and later Saturday into early Sunday across S Scotland and perhaps N England.

If stronger instability/convection can develop from insolation with any cloud breaks, this more likely across southern/western Ireland, then there is a greater potential of isolated severe storms, given fairly strongly sheared environment over Ireland with up to 40-50 kts of deep layer shear and increasingly backed winds towards the surface ahead of low moving NE. Therefore there is potential for storms with rotating updrafts/supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Limiting factor to severe threat across Ireland will be rather saturated forecast skew-t profiles and cloudiness, though some drier mid-level air may reach southern Ireland by evening, therefore confine slight risk area to here. General thunderstorm risk for rest of Eire, S Scotland and N England seems more suitable at this time, though the situation will be monitored for more widespread severe potential.

courtesy of netweather.tv
hmmm!!! hopefully see a wee bit of the good stuff today into tonight

TORRO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK issued on Friday July 9 2010.

A broad upper trough to the west of the British Isles will sharpen as it approaches during the next 36-48 hours. A frontal wave will develop in response to this, and deepen into a surface depression, which is then progged to track NNE through western Eire and into western Scotland through Saturday.

Close to the track of the depression, weak instability is expected to develop in a fairly strongly sheared environment. Cloud will be rather extensive but any breaks will allow somewhat larger instability to develop locally across Eire and N Ireland.

An extensive area of rainfall will accompany the frontal system across Eire, N Ireland and Scotland, although a few embedded thunderstorms are expected too. The highest risk of severe weather appears to be across Eire/N Ireland, where isolated tornadoes and damaging wind is possible. A lower risk for Scotland, N Wales and N England, but this could increase through the evening.

The extensive cloudiness associated with the warm sector (tropical maritime origin) along fairly neutral lapse rates currently indicate the overall risk is fairly low. However, the situation will be monitored tomorrow, and if cloud breaks more than currently expected in the warm sector, the overall risk would likely be somewhat higher.

courtesy of TORRO.

Ooh you may get something then JP! Keep that cam at the ready!

I'm looking at Monday morning for forecast thundery rain, keeping an eye on this too. Not getting too excited yet, just keeping tabs like!

Boy there is some serious rain passing to the west of us just now. So much so, the met office have issued a flash warning.



Radar image courtesy of netweather.tv

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html?from=rss&sn=2439

Nice radar image, some intense stuff there mate!

Bugger all down here, hot, humid, no storms or rain even!

Just crazy heavy rain here, really muggy outside.

And this just isn't fair.



Trip to Germany, anyone?

Cheers Wazza, we didn't end up getting any of that big system of rain here, although it was a pretty rainy old day up until mid afternoon, but just constant drizzly stuff.

Deffo - europe getting some cool action right now!

Possible stormy stuff tonight, although no instability showing?... BBC are forecasting possible storms coming in from the continent tonight... coming from the right direction!

I'm surprised to see UKASF going for storms as well.

Though possible forecast agencies going for storms to cover their rear ends incase thundery showers do turn heavy enough for thunder ?

hand's up who want's to move to europe??? going to be a wild day in E holland N germany later on but there getting woken up to a nice light show! got a big ol band of the wet stuff heading this way, hopefully there's an embedded rumble but i doubt it.

jp iv been pondering getting a flight out there just for the storms and come back the next day lol but im not paying £150 just yet

lol. it would be fun but £150, could find better things to spend 150 quid on

Its not a bad idea really,its just the price

Yep maybe a second hand Kayak