UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 18th July.

Well this week then!

Beginning, ridge of High Pressure pushing into the south pumping up those temps, turning unsettled with yet more heavy and possibly thundery showers coming in after.

Good instability coming in too, so we will see!

Sorry for this being vague, I'm at work and not a lot of time! Hopefully someone else will post graphics for me!

My weather app on the iPhone likes Tuesday....

Heavy showers during the day followed by this:

You have the same app ii do wazza, I think it's extremely accurate. I have a similar forecast for st Neots. The radar is always pretty good.

Yeah the radar is very accurate mate. I used this when I followed that Brighton storm last year, spot on it was.

only down side with the app is that it keeps saying ill have a t storm in a couple of days....then a hour later it says i dont now lol

but onto the current weather...been a nice day here, quite breezy though, been windy for the past few days now....friday looks possible for storms though ?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;page=5;type=storm;ct=5155~Cambridge;sess=#forecast

hopefully something will materialise thats worth getting out and about for...

dont know if anyones (apart from me mucker del ) had a look at estofex yet for tomorrow but they have issued a slight risk for tomorrow already

... south-central England ...

As the deep trough which now transformed into an upper cold-core low approaches British Isles during the day, a cold front slowly moves eastwards. Ahead of this front, warm and rather moist airmass advects towards central England. It seems that some hours of diurnal heating will be enough to yield a few hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE in the afternoon. Placed right under the jet-streak, around 20 m/s of deep-layer shear and around 10 m/s of LL shear will be available for organized convection. Backed LL flow should enhance SREH3 up to 100-150 m^2/s^2 and could support some rotating updrafts. Given these kinematics in place, a couple of low-topped supercells with threat for weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

courtesy of estofex

Hmmm..............

had some heavy rain today and there's currently a netweather watch out for it.

Well so far today it's been very c and it's starting to feel like it's getting quite muggy. Hardly a breeze now but heavy cloud cover. Just checked ukasf and quite. Large t storm forecast and watch area. So maybe something will fire off this afternoon? Looking at te rain radar doesn't look like I am due any so maybe a dry storm ?

tornado watch has been issued by TORRO

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2010/003

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 14:15GMT on Tuesday 20th July 2010

Valid from/until: 14:15 – 0200GMT on Tuesday 20th July - Wednesday 21st July 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Midlands

Lincs

NE England

NW England

Cent/E Wales

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; hail to 20mm diameter; CG lightning; heavy rain

SYNOPSIS

Slow-moving cold front lies across the west of Great Britain, with a warm/humid airmass ahead of it. Lift from an approaching upper trough is causing widespread clouds/rain along and ahead of the front, but some cloud breaks have been noted recently across Wales. In addition, heating in advance of the cloud band appears to be causing some destabilisation over the West Midlands. Embedded convection within the frontal band, and more isolated convection ahead of the band will be developing within a reasonably sheared environment, with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-45 knots and 0-1km bulk shear of 20-25 knots. Hi-res models indicated the development of local convergence zones/backed surface flow, which may enhance SREH in any passing cells.

Thus, there appears to be a tornado risk with more intense cells which develop this afternoon/evening, along with strong winds, reasonably large hail, and heavy rain. Given the fairly warm/moist airmass, lift from the approaching upper trough may allow convection to continue well into the evening, mainly across the northern parts of the WATCH.

Forecaster: RPK.

yummy!!!

hopefully that situation they spoke about will develop this time!

its stupidly muggy here in st neots....cloud cover and im actually sweating typing this

its been like that the last couple of days here when you cant move without sweating.

had a small cell pop up and produce some of the good stuff but its over the sea now getting further away
not to worry tho as theres more on the way. just hope it contains the goods im looking for

Glad to see you're getting some action JP, although it's small at the moment.

I thought I may get something today but not to be. Hoping something drifts up from France but I can't see it producing anything of interest.

It is muggy too!

I would just like to remind you all that I am still sweating my nuts off Here. What is it with British weather. And why can't I have a brilliant storm to liven things up. Same boat as you wazza, missing all the fun

For sure mate.

Now I really don't get it.... We have had heat and humidity, cold front pushing in, instability, but no storms! Just heavy rain to the West. Puzzled slightly....

JP....

You get owt? I saw your FB update!

Well nothing interesting happened last night here, looks like the next couple of days are going to be quiet for me too. Boring!!

So far today it's very sunny out a few clouds but a bit breezy. Feels very warm though but not muggy which I am glad.

mother of all things holy...look what i just saw on the forecast for tomorrow :O

should i get excited or just thing pft lies lies lies!!!

1075 kj with a -5 li

well had some nice lightning last night and managed not to record any and missed any photo oppertunitys due to the laptop crashing and by the time i got it sorted the cell had passed to the NE

a few warnings are in place for more good stuff today and hopefully we get it again......

Well I have woken up happy I am under a storm watch today and things look slightly promising. So far this morning it's been nice and sunny, feels very fresh outside to. Hopefully things will materialise. Looking at te radar the first rain I am due will be about 10am. The cloud looks like it's starting to build now outside

For sure, warnings out already today for some pretty lively showers across the UK, main focus on the Midlands and the SW. Here are the Precip and Cape values for 18:00!





These figures run through the day and already signs of convection out there. I'm at work unfortunately today too so the only chance i'll get of catching something is through the night time hours, 22:00 onwards.

To add to this too, I did have a dream last night about catching lightning on camera, you never know, it may become true.... hopefully!

Another thing to bear in mind though, that famous word "Showers" again. We will see.

I am quite lucky of sorts at the moment, still
Waiting for a start date on my new job so have some time on my hands, but I can't get out and about to far as Ali doesn't like thunder so can't leave her and little man on their own lol

But the cape values look great, I look like I am right o. The eastern edge of things, you look well placed wazza! Julian looks like he is on the western edge. We both might be hit and miss.

It's clouded up now still nice and warm. Something to keep an eye on over the day though

Talking of which just seen a updated met office forecast and we are now under a severe weather warning now

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html

Yeah I'm looking like im in the right area, but can't get out in it with camera :-(.

Congrats too on the job JP!

Just took these whilst walking to the docs. Starting already!

Brilliant pics. Are u uploading them straight from your iPhone wazza? If so tell me how so I can lol as it's a right fiddle to take them from my camera to the laptop it's getting calm
Here and the clouds are beginning to build up now sunshine has gone for the time being but it's very calm.

Just worked out how to upload pics directly using the photobucket iPhone app. Here is what I took about ten mins ago from my window




Just read a facebook message from a fried and it's hammering down in Bedford and heading my way

Yep that's the one mate! Still a bit of a fiddle but yeah you copy that img code and job done!