UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July

Well, rain is here with an unsettled week ahead...,

Weds looking ok for storms with an area of unstable air moving up from the SW!

just been having a look at the GooFuS and tomorrow looks juicy. be interesting to see what warnings are issued. could be the first significant event of the year. the stream will be up and running tomorrow.

time to keep an eye on the high res models me thinks

Almost certainly going to be some T/Storms tomorrow ( weds )
I wouldnt go as far as saying its literally going to be an organised event, there will be very brisk winds with showers turning heavy/thundery over a very wide area of the country so could well be a tough one to pin point where storms may develop.
Certainly nothing like seeing a batch of storms moving across the channel, things will be far more randomly spread than that !
Could even see some damaging winds with some of these showers/storms.
Not looked at Shear in detail yet but wouldnt be surprised if Funnels Clouds were mentioned in any Alerts that may be issued a little later.

Best of all i have managed to switch my day off to tomorrow so i will be doing my best to try to catch something should anything worthwhile appear. Thinking i may head to the S Coast first and see how things develop during the early morning.
Tough one to know where to go really and could well be more luck than judgement.

Just for once lets see something happen

Met office SLP but it does also show a few Troughs over the country during the day for tomorrow. May well be areas to keep a watch on.
And one of these runs over here in the SW.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html#view

Currently one Alert issued by Netweather.
Applies to Wales, N England and Scotland for the remainder of the day.

Heavy Rainfall.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerthome

Met Office go with Wales only...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1


And so far NOTHING issued for tomorrow....yet

Current SAT image.
And no bonus prizes for working out where the Low Pressure system is either

Note continued areas of storm activity further East on Mainland Europe.

Having a look at NMM already and might as well post this as a starter.
So the best area in the UK is.........
Certainly shaping up to be a day where absolutely anywhere could be in the frame.

Sadly i couldnt get my pin to stick in the computer screen.....

Weds 16.00 CAPE and LI High Res NMM.

850-500hpa Lapse.
Nice numbers there, again 16.00 and High Res NMM.

Had a look at a few more things but maybe not worth posting anymore graphics just yet. Couple of things worth a mention though is that 850hpa winds are showing in the region of 30-70mph over most of the UK most of the day so as already mentioned any storms will be moving at a fair clip.
Shear both Lower/Deep Layer both seem to be low so maybe not such a risk of Funnels/weak Nados.

Dewpoints of 14-16C.

Will add this graphic, its the TT index.
As far as my understanding goes this is the Total Totals. Represents a cross section of all T/Storm parameters and shows that total, higher the total better the chances. I have read a bit about these but the equations used to work this out is way way above my understanding.

Anyway..TT Index 16.00..



Am i really gonna sit here all night now looking at data....

you know your gonna be sitting there all night scratching the noggin and pondering where to go

looked at the shear earlier too and went blegh!! there defo gonna be hauling ass tomorrow tho. might hit the garden in the morn and do a funky storm jig

Out the front, in the road and pulling some shapes !

Meanwhile at Metweather HQ things were already in progress....

good god they stole me storm jig think i'll go for the good ol big fish, small fish thingy majiggy

See that little orange spot on the west coast of scotland?



I LIVE THERE!

Hopefully something interesting will happen...

the little orange spot i get one of those at 1800 too. will defo be all eyes on radar and the sky tomorrow. its gotta happen.......has'nt it??

Could be game on anywhere i think, sadly i have no Orange Spots here.
Just checked so a call to my Doctor is not required

Still not seeing any Alerts/Watches being issued though.
Other than the existing heavy rainfall one of course.
Hmm

heres the updated hi res NMM for sbCAPE at 1800 tomorra



heres the mid level CAPE for the same time



you want some of those orange spots mate?? well ya cant have any coz there mine and mariannes

JP , graphics not there mate, well not showing here anyway ?
I now have RED and PURPLE all over my area for tomorrow...so there



Just hope my kids paint comes off the puter screen

bugger!! where they go??? they were there.............

wazza.....sort it out mate

good ol poster paint on the screen. you trying to make yourself feel better

edit: just checked the NMM and its gone back to the 06z run!! wonder if thats got anything to do with it??

Umm, well........

Just been reading a bit on the Netweather Forum and one comment sort of summed the UK up storm wise, made by a senior forecaster...
" Tomorrow shaping up for almost anywhere! (or possibly nowhere!! "

Gotta love a comment like that, but generally most seem reasonbly hopeful but the where/anywhere is to the fore of most things, the real doubt.

Also from Netweather....Nick F , Senior Forecaster

" Steering winds over next few days (i.e. at 500mb) will be SW'erly, so normally areas S and SE of London and along S and SW coasts tend to end up dry due to short land fetch from the windward coast. However, given the unstable nature of the atmosphere tomorrow, I wouldn't rule out a heavy shower or t-storm almost anywhere.

Should be widespread potential for storms tomorrow, strongest deep layer shear near the SW'erly jet over far eastern England doesn't overlap the best potential instability further west over central and western areas ... however, up to 30 kts deep layer shear over eastern central areas may allow some storm organisation with a hail and gusty wind threat and with increasing low-level shear as winds back SE'erly with approach of trough from the SW - we could see one or two weak tornadoes and some funnel sightings. Though cannot see a severe threat unlike that likely over the near continent as always "

Thatll keep me hopeful for now

hehehe, thats the spirit

defo gonna be a night of wondering. soundings are gonna be interesting to see. wonder what the pub runs gonna say??

Hic hic hiccup burp i expect

Whatever happens i shall get out and have a look about, may catch a bit of summat going on, try to catch that Trough as it goes through may be my best bet.
If not its back to Extreme Knitting

well i'll be sitting here waiting whatever happens. danielle has a driving lesson tomorra afternoon so hopefully its gonna give it laldy

extreme knitting.....nice

May be of interest JP, certainly up your way anyway..

Again Nick F , Netweather...

Looking at the 12z GFS parameters for storms tomorrow, my attention is initially drawn to E/NE England from Nern Cambs around the The Wash up through Lincs into S Yorks and N Yorks for best potential of some strong storms developing with potential for damaging gusty winds, large hail and perhaps one or two tornadoes towards early evening. Why? Well, GFS models best potential instability in this area (several 100 j/kg CAPE); overlaid by strong speed shear with proximity of the strong jet running up the east coast - which will allow cell organisation; and also increasing low-level shear as surface winds back SE'erly against the mean SSW/SW flow further aloft. Deep layer shear maybe sufficient combined with increasing low-level shear for rotating updrafts in any strong storms which may perhaps bring an enhanced risk of a tornado, though strong wind gusts and hail seem the most likely severe threat with any storms.
Bulk wind shear generally weakens considerably away from eastern England the further west you go, so general non-severe storms will be more likely with non-severe gusty winds, hail and torrential rain accompanying stronger cells.

Far Nern France and the Low Countries looks at a greater risk of supercells with all the severe parameters coming together tomorrow afternoon/evening of strong instability, strong upper winds and strong DL shear and LL shear, so would expect to see some nasty supercellular storms moving north over that region tomorrow PM, perhaps the edge of the storm system clipping the far southeast corner, though unlikely with the severity as on the continent.

I hope its okay copying this over from Netweather...not totally sure if i should be really ?