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 UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10

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PostSubject: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Tue May 04, 2010 2:24 am

Hope everyones enjoying/enjoyed their Bank Holiday weekend.
Not done much here but nice to see the sun shining again after a few rather dull and wet says. Although that N/NE breeze has certainly taken the edge off the temps.

Looking at the rest of the week things generally are not looking too bad with temps rising slightly and looking to be reasonbly dry and bright for most of the week.
Will post up a bit more detail later today and a few graphics as usual. I have a feeling we will be seeing some low nightime temps as well.

Further detail this evening.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Tue May 04, 2010 3:53 am

Ok, so heres the mini-forecast for the coming week.
All detail and graphics taken from todays 12z Run on Netweather.tv.

As already mentioned above things looking to be reasonbly settled with little of note currently showing. Temps will indeed increase slightly towards the middle of the week but even then we are only looking at top temps of maybe 16/17C.
Light rain is likely in many areas during the week and we also continue to sit under what will be a N/NE airflow thus keeping those temps a bit lower for some.

So to give a bit more detail with data taken for 15.00 each day.

Tues..... temps 7-14C, with any rainfall some of which will be heavy confined to the far N/Scotland.
Light N/NE winds for the majority of the UK.

Weds..... temps 9-15C, light showers possible over much of the country with winds continuing in the N/NE flow.

Thurs...... temps 7-16C, showers confined to more S/SW regions with the far NE of England and E Scotland also seeing some rain. A few of these may be a bit on the heavier side as well. N/NE light winds continue.

Fri...... temps 7-13C, showers likely anywhere from the Midlands south of which some may be heavy again. And winds still remain the same.

Sat.....little unsure on what im seeing temps wise here as its currnetly showing as a max of only 6C in the South, not really thinking that is right somehow. But otherwise showing as 6-13C with rain again likely from the Midlands south. Wind continues from a cool N/NE.

Sun.....again temps looking surpressed as the winds draw in cooler air from a more N'erly direction. Showing as between 4-13C. Showers for the Eastern side of the UK.

Nightime temps will be low with a few more sheltered areas seeing a frost but in general 2-4C looks possible so certainly a chilly feel to things for anyone up and about nice and early, yes that includes me as well.

And Storms.....not seeing anything at all there at the moment to give even the slightest of hope. But of course Sundays GFS last week showed much the same but as the week progressed things did change for the better and a few T/Storms did occur although weak and very scattered.

So thats about it from me, as ever the GFS will change with every Run so almost certain things will change, but for me im guessing the Mankini can go away for another week at least....yes Wazza you will have to put on some proper clothes Suspect

Finally just a few graphics...courtesy of Netweather.tv as usual.

Tues SLP 15.00



Thurs SLP 15.00



Sat SLP 15.00



Not really anything else of interest worth showing graphic wise at the moment so will leave it there for now.

Have a good week all Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Tue May 04, 2010 10:40 am

Cheers bud for posting that info, very detailed there mate. If there were a points system here, you'd have one. Now there's an idea! Wink

I was looking forward to sunbathing in my mankini too...

Yep, another boring week then, never mind! Still all summer left yet. I'll have to find something else to take photos of then. afro
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Thu May 06, 2010 10:14 pm

An outside chance of a small T/Storm down this way during today.
Forecasts of some slow moving heavy showers into the early evening so will be keeping a watch on SAT images and Radar during today i think.
Not expecting much but any bit of action would keep me happy for 5 minutes bounce
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Thu May 06, 2010 10:16 pm

Well as if by magic.....issued on Netweather.tv.

Valid: 06/05/2010 0900 - 07/05/2010 0600

Headline: ...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Trough is centred over central Europe during Thursday, while a ridge is centred just south of Iceland, with the British Isles under the influence of a cool N to NE flow. A shallow sfc low with associated occluding cold front ahead of a mid-level trough will move SSW across the western side of the UK during the morning, to be centred over Biscay by midnight.

... WALES, SW ENGLAND ...

WV imagery this morning depicts a well-defined mid-level trough and dry air intrusion moving south down the Irish Sea, this combined with cooling mid-level temperatures which will steepen lapse rates behind cold front moving south down Wales and SW England will allow scattered heavy showers to develop across south Wales and SW England – especially in the afternoon. Where insolation occurs, there maybe as small chance of an isolated thunderstorm – more especially across SW England. Convection may also produce small hail and gusty winds. Weak instability and lack of wind shear will exclude risk of severe weather. Convection should diminish after dark.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Thu May 06, 2010 10:22 pm

Yeah to the west mate. Could be your day with the cam now! rabbit

Cape around 1-200, LI at 0, could happen. Strong sun at the moment too!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Thu May 06, 2010 10:31 pm

Current conditions.

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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Fri May 07, 2010 1:58 am

its nice and sunny here in cambridgeshire at the moment, but its not to warm, i beleive its about 15 degrees but with a chilly wind....

lovely day all the same!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Fri May 07, 2010 2:12 am

i see north cornwall have the possibility of some thundery showers this evening...anybody live down there to keep an eye on it?
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Fri May 07, 2010 2:18 am

Not a bad sort of day up this way today, topping 12.2C. Looked like we might get a dumping of rain this morning, but it's brightened up now. Here's hoping you guys down in the S.W. see some action from that storm forecast!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Fri May 07, 2010 2:22 am

Definitely more of a thundery feel around this afternoon here. However, think it will miss us and head up towards the cider country! lol! Let us know how it goes!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Fri May 07, 2010 5:12 am

Very little happened today anywhere in the way of T/Storms, well there werent any actually. Which is a let down considering there were Watches issued for Wales and the SW.
Been checking SAT, Radar and Lightning Trackers on and off all day and nothing of note at all. There have been some isolated heavy showers but they have all been small and shortlived so nothing had had a chance to get a little more organised.
On a few occasions here ive had a look outside and thought that maybe something was setting to happen but on every occasion it all failed me miserably.

A remote chance that something may get going yet but with every minute that passes that lessens as temps drop away again.
Not come close to anything at all here in Somerset yet in the way of a storm. Not even any nice cloudscapes on offer to get the camera out for.
Just not good enough Crying or Very sad
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Fri May 07, 2010 7:08 am

Well I foolishly went out for a walk and half way through, we had quite a decent hail shower! Ouch! Smile Oh well, at least it was fun to watch and actually quite invigorating to be out in, even if I did end up a bit soggy. Smile

Better than nothing, and being a weather junkie, I cannot complain! Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Fri May 07, 2010 7:23 am

Thanks for making me feel even more Weather deprived mate Mad
I would be the same as you in a Hail storm though, good fun for sure.

Still showing a CAPE of 240 here in the SW but Instability has now gone although during today it was only showing a zero at best. So given max CAPE was about 300 and LI was around zero all day its no surprise little happened. As far as what ive seen i dont think there was a T/storm anywhere today.

Never mind, looking forward to a cold and wet weekend now Suspect
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Sat May 08, 2010 3:32 am

just been flicking through the GFS for next week (hoping for some warm stuff!) and noticed that on wed 12th its showing up with an area just west of me as 6/700 j/kg CAPE, LI from 0 to -2 and lapse rates of 30/31!! temps are'nt looking to impressive tho at around the 8c mark. storm risk is 40/50% but this far out, who knows. just something to keep my eye on in the coming days.

this week has been bloody freezing with the N/NE! had heating on for a bit today Suspect
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Sun May 09, 2010 1:40 am

JP, just had a scan through next week and cant see CAPE or LI anywhere mate scratch
Dunno if something has suddenly changed between Runs or not but looks another week without hope at the moment. Maybe ive missed something or was it that you had been at the Whisky !

Im sure all of us know its a chilly day out there today, been damp and drizzly most of the day here and far from warm. Just had a look at Station Data for current temps and Wind Chill temps show as ZERO for most of the East Coast !
Even inland over most of the UK its showing as between 2-5C at best.

Spring Question

Umm, Winter more like No
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Sun May 09, 2010 4:54 am

well what a wash out today has been!! its pretty much been raining since 2 am this morning!! its stopped for a short while now but the dark clouds are on there way over again....so where is this warm weather!!

no storms or any other sort of weather...just pure rain Sad
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Sun May 09, 2010 10:56 am

Yeah i agree mate, complete washout. Temp rose to ooooh... 9C! And this is spring?

Hope for better next week eh, although short term, not much change.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Sun May 09, 2010 7:02 pm

Already had a quick scan through next weeks GFS and things will improve, but not much thats for sure. Temps still below Seasonal Average and a N/NE airflow holds on for much of the week it seems. And that means cool days and cold nights.
As for Storms, unless something changes signifigantly im not seeing much hope of any at all during the next week or so.

Yesterday was a cold and damp one from start to finish here. Still cold and overcast this morning with a bit of drizzle about. May brighten up a bit later, hey might even see the sun for a few minutes if im lucky. Temp wise expecting a rather tacky 12C maybe Suspect

We had the long and cold Winter so surely its now not going to be a slow and cold Spring as well No
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Sun May 09, 2010 7:25 pm

Just thinking, its now May 9th and after all the waiting for the new V5 Radar to be launched as yet ive not had reason to actually try to get out there and actually use it when after a few storms...how bad is that Crying or Very sad

Im sure it will be a huge help when the full Overlays are available but a chance to even use it as it is would be nice. Only early May and im already getting Storm Deprivation Twitches geek
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Mon May 10, 2010 7:45 am

We've normally at least had one storm up here by now. No

The odd rumble and flash doesn't satisfy my storm needs! Crying or Very sad
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Mon May 10, 2010 9:12 am

Like you say Upps, probably the seasons are a little slow this year. Winter took ages to go and so may spring.

But hopefully, summer may last a little longer too then eh! Pffff! Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Wed May 12, 2010 5:48 am

Image from Netweather...



Is it just me or is it like the CAPE and LI are actually avoiding us? Everywhere but the UK!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 03/05/10   Thu May 13, 2010 12:37 am

Firstly im a fool as ive realised that whilst i had put together this weeks detail i didnt post it here, clever that...... scratch

As far as CAPE and LI, quite right Marianne, we do seem to be in an exclusion zone at the moment, well have been for a while and not much changes short term looking at GFS.
There is talk of a maybe a few rumbles today and a bit of hail as well but even then GFS doesnt seem to support that at all so slightly puzzled by those claims. Although there is some Convection about looking outside at the moment, all very modest and not really turning to much though.

As i keep trying to convince myself it is only early/mid May and theres just not the Heating going on to get this stuff going. We even had a light frost here this morning...whats that all about !

It will happen but im not saying when quite yet Suspect
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