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    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July

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jp
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:33 am

thats what we like to hear! sounds good. just hope it all comes together now and gives us what we really want.

fecking miserable here now, got gusty winds as this next band of heavy dew approaches and its cold!! Mad
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:44 am

OOhh could this be another drive to Kent??? Dunno if I can get away from work early enough...

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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:54 am

supercell composite paramaters for 15z tomorrow



tornado index for 15z tomorrow



images courtesy of www.lightningwizard.com
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:00 am

I wish I was in central France! Shocked
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:03 am

think we all do mate What a Face hopefully get our own touch of central france tomorrow lol!
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:12 am

i finally have some good CAPE and a low LI for tomorrow evening AT LAST!!!!

778 j/kg and a -5 LI
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:26 am

Good luck with seeing something. Ups tells me that France will get hammered tomorrow so on the look out for something coming our way but nothing actually forecast for us as yet.
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:31 am

Think it's going to be NE France, perhaps clipping Kent, but loads of showers round everywhere!
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:35 am

Our shower today consisted of approximately 10 drops! Just as well, hubby is painting the house!

If it's NE France, it may be worth a drive towards our north east coast - could see some lightning perhaps. Will see how it goes tomorrow but the weather normally does by pass us and travels up towards Kent.
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:36 am

Does say NE France and the Lowlands.
Wazza being well hopeful there, loads of showers, hoping for more than that, yes heavy showers affraid
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:05 am

Joking about it being heavy showers, well that wouldnt warrant any Warnings or Watches being issued would it. And so far....NOTHING has been issued by anyone, well not that ive seen so far.
Will have another check about now and see if anything has changed.
Looking at UKASF and MetO now on here its still all clear.

Must admit for all the general discussion on many Forecasts and Forums im really surprised. Lets hope it changes quickly.
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:17 am

TORRO....clear
METO...clear
UKASF....clear
ESTOFEX ..... clear

So, not sure what to make of that ?
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:23 am

they'll be sitting scratching there noggins (getting splinters) wondering will it, wont it?? i know estofex issue there daily warnings around 6am, UKASF maybe around midnight. the rest i think just wait till morning to issue them for the forthcoming day. still plenty of time and im sure they'll come in due course....hopefully. all the ingredients are there for storms. suppose we'll just have to wait and see.......
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:45 am


Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-07-13 22:07:00
Valid: 2010-07-14 00:00:00 - 2010-07-14 23:59:00

Regions Affected
England, Wales, Northern Ireland and S Scotland (remainder of Scotland is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Deep area of Low pressure "Olivia" (FU Berlin) drifts slowly across Ireland during Wednesday, dominating the weather across the United Kingdom.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across a large portion of the THUNDERSTORM threat area in response to daytime heating and increasing instability. Moderate-sized hail is possible in any stronger cells, and there is an increased risk of locally severe weather across the east/northeast of England during the evening hours with a threat of a moderate tornado. Locally high rainfall totals are possible from persistent, torrential downpours. Showers will also contain locally strong gusty winds.

Showers are forecast to progressively decrease in coverage during the second half of the evening hours, becoming largely limited to coastal regions.

courtesy of UKASF

thats the first one!!!
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:47 am

there is an increased risk of locally severe weather across the east/northeast of England during the evening hours with a threat of a moderate tornado.

i like that bit bounce bounce
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 10:23 am

My weather report? Patchy rain with sunny spells.

Neutral
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 10:25 am

From netweather, posted at Skywarn UK -

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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:25 pm

...England, Wales...

Behind the cold front, polar maritime airmass will advect over the region with low LCLs. Diurnall heating will lead to the destabilisation and scattered showers or low topped thunderstorms are possible. In fresh westerly flow, moderate wind shear values, 15-20 m/s of DLS might sustain some well organised storms. Combined with strong shear at lower levels ( over 10 m/s of LLS) an isolated tornado can not be ruled out and a low-end Level 1 is introduced for this region.

courtesy of estofex
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:28 pm

During Wednesday, slow-moving 500mb and surface low centred over SW Ireland at the base of broad upper trough drives an unstable cyclonic S to SW flow across the UK during the forecast period. At 12z, an occluding cold front lies from Ayr-Lancaster-Brighton moving E and NE, with troughs following in unstable SW flow.

… ENGLAND, WALES, IRELAND and S SCOTLAND …

Upper trough and jet will slowly move east across the UK during the day, moist airmass of maritime origin will destabilise as increasingly cold upper air is introduced by upper trough. Widespread scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across many areas of the UK, away from N Scotland. Troughs moving in from the SW will likely enhance t-storm activity by giving additional lift. T-storms are likely to be accompanied by hail of pea to marble size, gusty winds and torrential rain.

Deep layer wind shear will generally be weak towards western UK and over Ireland, so storms that develop in these areas are unlikely to organise sufficiently to pose a severe threat. However, when maximum instability is likely to develop in the afternoon across E/NE England, a strong 100 knot SSWerly jet streak across the far east will overlap ... which will help organise any thunderstorms into multicell structures or bowing line segments capable of strong wind gusts to 50-60 mph, hail to marble size and torrential rain with risk of localised flooding. Furthermore, GFS suggests reservoir of several 100 j/kg CAPE from N Cambs up to NE England which is overlapped by deep layer shear in the order 30-40 knots and increasing low-level shear ahead of shortwave trough moving NE - which maybe sufficient for rotating updrafts in stronger storms capable of producing one or two tornadoes. Therefore issue a SLIGHT risk for this area (see map).

Over the near continent, severe thunderstorms are likely to develop over far Nern France and into Benelux, as strong instability develops within an environment of strong vertical shear. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts and one or two tornadoes are possible on the near continent, some of these storms may spread across the East English Channel to effect the far SE corner, however this is rather uncertain and any storms are unlikely to be as severe as on the near continent. Main threat of any storms here, given 40 knots deep-layer shear, would most likely be large hail, torrential rain leading to localised flooding and strong wind gusts.

courtesy of netweather.tv
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:39 pm

JP. nice one with the updates there.
All sorts happening by the sounds of it. Im sitting here wondering where the hell to go, its one of those days where i could set off somewhere and a storm happens here. Best area seems to be in your region but im not about to drive there and back by 6pm today !

Will give it an hour or so and look at SAT and radar images and then go from there. But heres hoping that some of us see something of note today.

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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:46 pm

its not looking to bad is it? just had a quick look at the hi res NMM and its showing no CIN here either infact -100!!
as you said could happen anywhere but im fancying toward the IOW for ya. gonna be plenty of destabilization going on here later, got a fog and plenty of moisture to to get sucked up hopefully pulling the LCL's down further.
got to hit town in 10 but when i get back its gonna be all eyes on the radar and sky.
its game on..................... bounce
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:48 pm

If ever a picture tells a story.....okay its early at the moment but this is what any of those storms will be in amongst a little later.
Shows just how difficult things are picking an area. The closer UK view will give a far clearer picture during the day and any storms should show ok..maybe ??!!

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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:51 pm

Messy, yes that is the UK under there Suspect



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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:54 pm

it sure looks a bit messy just now but it should look better later.........

you can see the jet streak headed up this way transporting moisture on the close up of the UK but need this fog to bugger off now to get the surface heating underway. just looked outside and its all but gone lol!

i got a good feeling about today scratch lol!
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PostSubject: Re:    UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 11th July   Wed Jul 14, 2010 8:21 pm

Still reasonbly quiet but an interesting area appearing East of Exeter so gonna have a drive out and see whats what. As expected its all moving fairly fast so gonna be hard to catch these things.
Nothing on Lightning Trackers anywhere yet.
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