UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, WC 26th September

Autumn continues throughout the week with grey skies, rain or drizzle for most with the odd sunny spell.

Tomorrow looks to be a rather moist one, and temps rising a degree or two as a front pushes in from the west drawing in warmer southerly air but being short lived as temps take a slight dip back towards the weekend.

Winter is on her way!

I see the met office have issued a heavy rainfall warning for us up here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html?from=rss&sn=2306

The GFS isn't as convinced that Fife will be the target of a heavy band of rain moving up from the SW, but curiously Fife is the only county under warning at this point. Kind of feels like the Met office know something the GFS doesn't in terms of the target area. Going by the GFS, it looks like Cumbria could be just as at-risk.

Yeah there are some discrepancies regarding the GFS etc. But you may be for a good soaking. Notsure exactly how heavy this rain will get tomorrow, it's an all dayer here with rain forecast to fall between 3am and 6pm. But it may be mostly light with the odd heavy burst. No warnings down here.

I see Wales has now been added to the MetO's warning list now too. Wonder if that list will explode tomorrow morning!?

Just a wee bit of rain falling here right now

From the WX Station (and there's still plenty more rain to come):

Woooooo I just checked the radar myself and you have quite a fair bit there mate! I've escaped most if it but there's an area of heavier stuff pushing N/NE so I'll be keeping an eye on that. Cool graphics tho mate, Hi-Five for ya!

WOOOT! Thanks for my first hi-five Wazza!! The rain has eased off now, but looks like we could get more in another hour or so looking at the radar. Just came back from a trip out and there is already some quite bad flooding on the back roads from here up to Loch Leven. In some parts I had to drive on the wrong side of the road to get around some rather treacherous "puddles"!

Anyone want a Chest Infection, one fed up owner.
FREE to a ANY home

Been a so so week so far but Rainfall is certainly worth watching during today.
Some heavy stuff overnight/early morning here but looks like clearing through soon.
Not sure if anyone has looked a little further ahead yet, some DEEP Lows are on the way. Currently seeing 972mb off to the N/NW of the Ireland 18.00 Friday. Into Sat we then see 970 at 18.00 but little movement of the Low itself. Sun sees things change a little with lighter winds across much of the UK but with the Low still off NW Ireland.
During Mon it looks as if things will get a little complicated with another Low developing that will bring extensive Gales/Severe Gales for most of the country.
Tues looks much the same. Some way off yet of course but im sure we are in for a stormy few days. Personally if things stay as forecasted i will off to the coast camera and vid with me, maybe this time it will be me that gets wet as usual but not the cams. Hmm good way to ensure i have a bad chest for a few more days !

Oh and i have no idea how to give anyone a " Borat "..." High 5...i like ! "
Certainly liked the data Graham posted but at this point no High 5

And finally, we ALL missed a trick with Grahams Weatherevents Tour didnt we, what better an opportunity to get a few flyers out and spread the word, just didnt give it a though...damnit.

Really finally this time, honest...nothing in paper this week so heres hoping its next week

Thankyou

Ok so im not quite with it today, i was ALSO going to add that i will post some SLP and Wind Speed Graphics with detail of the mentioned weather systems a little later today. Will be far easier than reading what im waffling on about right now

But it is going to be very windy with Northern and Western areas taking the brunt of these winds, could this be the first real Autumn/Winter Storm..i hope so

Dont think i have anything else to say.....

You carry on talking mate, we're listening! I'll let you post the graphics then as you said you'd post them

I see what you're on about with that Low, sits to the NW of Scotland for quite a few days, and 970 could be our first winter storm! Only thing is, it's far north! For us southerners, Tuesday looks to be more of a windy one, with that complex Low developing a new centre across the NE, bringing mean wind speeds across the Midlands and the South of around 20mph. Hoping it develops further to raise this figure, and bring us some nice gusts.

Coupled with the precip, we could have us some more interesting weather to play with.

Just going to get those graphics up, im sure i saw far stronger winds than 20 for more Southern regions, well i hope i did

Further North is going to get a battering if all holds as GFS shows.
I wanna go to the coast and i wanna get wet

Right GFS and graphics...back soon.....

Arrrgggghhhhh.....had the images ready, adding text and Internet crashed here.

I can only say

So back to it....

Hello again, yes its me .....

Fri 18.00...SLP and Windspeeds





Sat 18.00...SLP and Windspeeds





Now onto Mon 18.00 SLP and Windspeeds
Looking to be both a messy and complicated set up ....





And finally Tues





Okay so that will do for now.
As ever GFS will change so where we do eventually see the strongest winds and just how strong they will be will become clear nearer the time.
Still looking possible for a run to the South Coast if i can combine peak winds with High Tides.

Great charts Ju, certainly looks like things could get a little blowy up this way early next week if the GFS holds it's ground. Although as you say, it's early days yet and the GFS and ECM models seem to differ with the placement of the LP around Tues/Wed, but time will no doubt tell! It certainly could give the anemometer a good workout!

For sure!

A run would be great to the coast Ju, wish my days off were at the beginning of the week, otherwise I'd be with ya!!!

A real wet one on the cards for tomorrow too!

With you on the rain for moro, lots of it and heavy as well.
Oh to be a Postman

Apart from Saturday which isnt shaping up too badly we are set for some very unsettled weather for the next 4 or 5 days. Lots of fronts and weather systems all round for the UK.

Still hoping for a trip to the coast but need to see those winds a bit stronger here in the SW and as ive said together with High Tide times as well.
Not looked beyond early next week so not sure how things look but if you could get down and we could head off it would be great. Know lots of places with good vantage points where you do stay dry, of course i also know a few where you can get rather wet as well, thats the fun places to go

Haha like the Cobb at Lyme Regis where you got your cam wet?!?

Yeah that wind deffo needs to pick up a bit. Need those ol waves splashin! I'm not sure anywhere in the midlands will see much in the way of gusty stuff, but if there is I'll wang on up me beacon! Or my local mound...

Cant beat a bit of wind on the local mound mate !
Now that was a mound where you ran from the Lightning, seen bigger speed humps

But on a more serious note, inland doesnt look to be anything too special but if forecasts stay with 20-25mph wind speeds coastally i may well have a look.
Those will be Mean wind speeds so could expect gusts of 30mph+ maybe.
Im going to check tide times/size this evening and see what they are. Sadly im reasonbly sure tides were large this weekend just gone so will be a lot smaller this weekend coming. Need peak water with peak winds !

Failing that i could go to one of our proper mounds and get blown away of course, and i will be above Sea Level unlike the lightning mound Wazz. You sure that wasnt just an overturned wheelbarrow

BIG changes on GFS for the next 4 days

Will wait for the next Run to be issued and post details from there but signifigant changes with winds speeds far lower than originally showed generally.
Tomorrow ( Fri ) looking a good bet on the S/SW coasts with Mean speeds maybe up to 35mph.
Still Deep Lows close to the UK and Gales/Severe Gales are a posibility but far more restricted area wise.

Do i make a trip down to Devon moro...hmmmm

High Tide just about 10am tomorrow, onshore winds of 30mph+ at the same time.
Leaning towards making a trip to Exmouth/Dawlish or Lyme maybe.
Will have a ponder..it is going to rather wet without the rough seas, decisions decisions

Heres the detail for SLP and Wind Speed for 09.00 tomorrow ( Fri ) taken from the 18z GFS Run. Certainly looking favourable along the South Coast for some good shots/footage of what should be rough/v rough seas.
My only reservation is that these winds will be transferring Eastwards quite rapidly during the morning hours. At the very best i can get to the coast for High Tide at 10am but by then the strongest winds may well be much further long the coast, perhaps Weymouth region. Will not have the time to get that far East and back in time.

So heres the detail and i will decide what i will do early moro morning.
Have 3 camera batteries charged and 2 vidcam batts ready as well along with 2 tripods, better get some wet weather ( scuba ? ) gear as well.

Bit of detail i refer to but have not posted before...the Shipping Forecast.
Im interested in the Plymouth/N Biscay detail here.
As expected it does show that winds do decrease from Force 6 - Gale 8 down to 5 as the Low moves through.

Note the LOW is forecast to be 966 !!!

There are warnings of gales in Viking North Utsire South Utsire Forties Cromarty Forth Tyne Dogger Fisher Plymouth Biscay Fitzroy Sole Shannon Rockall Malin Hebrides Bailey Fair Isle Faeroes and Southeast Iceland.

The general synopsis at midday:
New low expected 60 miles west of Bailey 966 by midday tomorrow. Low Humber 1010 losing its identity by same time. High baltic 1025 slow moving with little change by that time.

The area forecasts for the next 24 hours:

Viking North Utsire South Utsire northeast Forties southeast 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 later. Rough or very rough, becoming very rough or high. Occasional rain. Good.

Southwest Forties Cromarty Forth:
Southeasterly 4 or 5 increasing 6 to gale 8, perhaps severe gale 9 later. Rough or very rough. Rain. Good, occasionally poor.

Tyne west Dogger:
Variable 4, becoming southeasterly 6 to gale 8. Moderate or rough. rain. Good, becoming poor.

East Dogger Fisher German Bight:
Southeasterly 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 later in Fisher. Moderate or rough. Occasional rain. Moderate or good.

Humber Thames Dover Wight Portland:
South or southwest 4 or 5 increasing 5 to 7, perhaps gale 8 later, decreasing 5 in Portland later. Moderate or rough. Rain. Good, becoming poor.

Plymouth northwest Biscay:
Southwesterly 6 to gale 8, veering northwesterly 5 later. Moderate or rough, becoming rough or very rough. Rain. Moderate or poor.

Southeast Biscay:
Southwesterly 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 in north, but variable 4 in far southeast. Moderate or rough. Rain. Moderate or good.

Southeast Fitzroy:
Northerly in far southeast at first, otherwise southwesterly, 5, but 6 to gale 8 in north. Rough or very rough. Showers. Moderate or good.

Northwest Fitzroy Sole:
Southwesterly, veering westerly or northwesterly, 6 to gale 8, decreasing mainly 5. Rough or very rough, becoming very rough or high. rain then squally showers. Moderate or poor, becoming good.

Lundy Fastnet Irish Sea:
South or southeast, veering southwest, 5 to 7, perhaps gale 8 later in Irish Sea. Moderate or rough, becoming rough or very rough except Irish Sea. Rain then showers. Poor, becoming good.

Shannon Rockall Malin:
South or southeast, veering southwest, 6 to gale 8, perhaps severe gale 9 later. Rough becoming very rough or high. Rain or squally showers. Moderate or poor.

Hebrides Bailey:
Southeast 6 to gale 8, perhaps severe gale 9 later. Rough or very rough. Rain or showers. Moderate, occasionally poor.

Fair Isle:
Southeast 5 to 7, increasing 7 to severe gale 9. Rough or very rough, occasionally high in east later. Occasional rain. Moderate or poor.

Faeroes Southeast Iceland:
East or southeast 6 to gale 8, perhaps severe gale 9 later. Rough or very rough. Rain. Moderate or poor.

And the Inshore Waters detail which is where i would hope to be of course

Lyme Regis to Lands End including Isles of Scilly

Issued by the Met Office at 1600 UTC on Thursday 30 September 2010

24 hour forecast:

Wind - South 5 to 7 veering northwest 4 or 5.
Sea State - Moderate or rough.
Weather - Rain, fair later.
Visibility - Moderate or good, becoming moderate or poor.

Sorry I couldn't reply to any of this last night, in bed at 9!

Just driven to Euston and apart from being dark with those annoying raindrops where you can't decide whether the wipers should be on or off, nothing to report. I am ahead of the front anyhow, just making itself known.

I like the idea of the shipping forecast, gives very detailed Coastal reports. Graphics you posted are better than the last runs too, mean windspeeds being around that 30 mark, you could see gusts of around 40 mph. That's why I love the south coast. It gets a hammering through winter!

As I'm at work, I'll occasionally check your updates as you post. I'll have time to reply when I get home at mid day.

Oh and beacon? Upside down wheel barrow???
It does have three trees on top, makes it taller!