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 UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10

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Wazza
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PostSubject: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Mon Nov 01, 2010 11:11 pm

And.... a windy week in store for most of us, with high rainfall totals likely as bands of rain sweep from the west. The north of the country will see gales on the West coasts for most of the week as the graphics show, with the south seeing more general breezy conditions. Wind speeds averaging 40mph on some occasions in the north! silent











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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Tue Nov 02, 2010 1:45 am

Nice one for starting this week Wazza, youve beaten me to it, been busy doing housework No

Have had a glance through this week and wet and windy seems to be the way for many and for most of the week as well. Low pressure systems in control of things so an unsettled week with the only bonus being the above average temps.
Make the most of toady i think, says he thats been hoovering, dusting and washing all day Rolling Eyes
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Tue Nov 02, 2010 1:48 am

Oh and may be looking at a coastal trip on Thursday if winds speeds hold as forecasted, 30mph or thereabouts will give some interesting seas coinciding with high tides...still looking for that first trip bounce
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:38 am

Make the most of toady? Who's he? Laughing

Yeah Thursday looks the best day this week. May go up my local mound! Vid camera time me thinks too. I have a few vantage points for windy weather. I wish I lived by the coast! Neutral
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:03 am

Certainly some interesting weather about the place at present. It's nice to see some windy weather around. OK, no thunder and lightening, but it's nice to be recording something decent in the wind department.

There was a really nicely defined change that moved through as I got up for work this morning at 5.

You can see the front pass pretty much bang on 5, in between the vertical lines in the graph from the weather station (note the windspeed spike, direction change and temperature drop, all correlating to the sudden onset of rainfall):



Along with the associated radar image:



Ups, looks like you could be in for some fun on Monday if those forecast windspeeds happen! Fingers crossed for ya.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:50 am

Nice detail on the weather station there Graham. I got to get me a setup like that!

Going to have a peek at the windspeeds tomorrow and see what's happening then. Hope it strengthens inland too. Too many hills in the way here.... actually, I may go stand on top of one! lol!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 2:18 am

Cheers Wazza. The forecast rain arrived a bit earlier than predicted today, with some light showers this afternoon (while I was trying to oil the mast in the lab and rake the leaves up in the back garden of course!). If the forecast is right, we're in for some heavy rain tonight!

Windspeeds still looking interesting for next Monday/Tuesday for the UK, as that low passes just to the North of Scotland. Sure do hope it follows that track as it could make Monday evening interesting, but I'm noting some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF 12Z, which has the low heading down the West coast.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 2:51 am

Oiling your mast in your lab Graham?... This is a family site you know! What a Face

Yeah the GFS has completely changed for the south of the UK now. Had it down as a big storm yesterday, but today = nothing! Well, Scotland in the firing line instead.

I'm not sure if anybody knows where this thing is heading! scratch
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:23 am

Wazza wrote:
Oiling your mast in your lab Graham?... This is a family site you know! What a Face

Lol, sorry wazza but it's a necessary evil! Smile My uk tour gave it a good work out so I thought I'd better give it some TLC Smile

The GFS does seem to be changing it's mind on a regular basis at present! Clearly the current atmospheric setup is not making life easy for the models!

Oh well if we get some decent wind out of it I will be happy! Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:06 am

Been away for the last 24 hrs as you may know so back here now all in one piece and back in the weather as usual. Not so sure i will ask Graham any questions about oiling his pole....... Suspect

So moving swiftly along.....models right now cannot make their minds up at all re next Mondays DEEP low pressure system. This Mon's Runs put it centered over the south coast and today its off Iceland, unless the whole set up has changed totally, well as such it has anyway.
But from todays GFS there will be winds in excess of 60mph quite likely in more northern/scottish regions ( Graham may i suggest tieing down your pole ?!). Certainly very rough conditions wil pressure falling to around 970mb.

Will continue to watch GFS and see just what happens.
But,and this is from Netw..........Looking further ahead, we're still watching a deep low as it moves towards the UK in time for the start of next week - the forecasting models are struggling to nail down it's track currently but it's very likely to bring some **nasty** conditions for a time.. Nasty being a very interesting word there im sure affraid


Oh and one last thing, until the next one...Graham love the graphics, great to see detail like that and be able to corralate it with real time and past conditions..very nice....one of those High Fivers due i think cheers

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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:13 am

Knew it wouldnt be long before i was back...how do you do a High Fiver.
I cant find the button Razz

Maybe i need some more tests No

lol!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:24 am

Hey thanks for the hi-5 Ju, and really glad to see ya back on deck!! Wink Wink

Very interesting to see the NW.tv forecasters are as perplexed by the track of that LP "nastiness" for Mon/Tues as we are. At least we know it's not just us! Smile The fact it has rated a mention on the NW.tv summary is a good sign that it might actually bring some interesting weather to the UK!

As for tying down the mast Ju (ROFL).. I might well be heading for a nice high hill somewhere next week to see if I can record some impressive gust speeds. affraid Very Happy Of course if I do that, I'll be webcasting as well and will post the link to the live cam.

PS: Just saw your latest post.. to give somebody a high-five, just click the little + symbol on their post. It's just to the right-hand side of the post.. it has a + sign and then a - sign just below it.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:34 am

Forgot to add... the 528DAM line comes down pretty darn low on Sat/Sun. Chance of some light snow showers up here maybe??!!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:12 pm

ROFL! Grahams oiled up pole tied town now? Then he's on about letting it loose on top of a hill?

I did see on the BBC forecast that you are due some wintery stuff over the hills Graham, those temps aloft really making a difference now.

Been a windy night here, prob some small gusts in there too. I'm on top of a hill so it's probably sounding worse than it is. My garden furniture is still well planted so it can't be that bad! rabbit
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Sun Nov 07, 2010 2:36 am

I Posted this on the SkyWarn-UK forum and regarding pressure I think this is a pretty safe opinion that is beginning to pan out...

I think 958mb is about as low as it would realistically go.
This low pressure is deepening as it moves with the Polar Jet Stream which is highlighted in the links below at T+48hours GFS

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20101106/06/48/hgt300.png

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/11/06/basis06/euro/jet3/10110806_0606.gif

As pressure deepens, it moves below/underneath the Jet Stream which will slow it down and eventually pressure will start to rise again.

You can see looking at the GFS Soundings the wind speed at which the low pressure system is being affected by at the height of 300hPa (the Jet Stream) and then the decrease in comparison the lower to ground level you get (950hPa). The slower the pressure system moves, the more chance of pressure rising I believe.

To look just ahead of T+48 and the FAX Charts get pressure of similar scale or a slight increase by T+72 as the centre is expected over France by this time. But noted there's no reduction in pressure either, http://www.netweather.tv/fax/PPVK89.png

And Dublin Ensembles (spelling?) has pressure fall in very good agreement http://www.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20101106/06/prmslDublin.png but not much lower then the low 960mb's to provide extra reasoning to why pressure shouldn't fall much lower.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 31/10/10   Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:03 pm

Yeah I did read something like that on netweather, they expect this low to fall out of the jetstream when it reaches the southern half of the UK. Interesting how these things work! Cool
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