| Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? | |
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Wazza Admin
Posts : 506 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 41 Location : Milton Keynes, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:42 pm | |
| Inland winds now forecast to reach 55-65mph gusts! Geez!
Also now named as "Benedict". Looks as though everyone is in for a wild night! | |
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Updraft Admin
Posts : 352 Hi-Five : 6 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 58 Location : Somerset, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sun Nov 07, 2010 12:49 am | |
| Just catching up here, slept until 13.15 This week catching up on me i think. Models still holding steady so this is the real deal now for sure. Not finding too much more detail that tells anything that we havent already posted but will post this link.Certainly gives a feel for what to expect. http://met-monkey.co.uk/?p=1860 Ive got Matt with me Sun night/Mon morn and intend to be at the coast by 3am, still deciding where. Coastal flooding and increased surge with high tides will make things that much more dangerous so really need to be careful this time. A wet camera is one thing but being washed away is not an option. Keep watching those Models | |
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weatherevents.net Admin
Posts : 152 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-14 Location : Fife, Scotland
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:18 am | |
| I'm just about biting my nails until the Nw.tv NMM goes into Monday morning!! I'm a little torn as to what to do. It looks like most of the action is a) on the west coast and b) in the early hours of the morning. I was considering depoying the lab in an exposed coastal location to the East of Edinburgh by around 8:30am Monday morning. But looking at the latest run, it looks like most of the action will be over by then and the winds will have dropped to more sensible values. What to do I think it's going to be a case of seeing what Sunday night brings and making the call in the morning. Ju, sounds super exciting fella!! I'll be up, so I'll be keeping a close eye on your FB page for some serious now-casting. | |
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weatherevents.net Admin
Posts : 152 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-14 Location : Fife, Scotland
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:24 am | |
| I see the MO have issued advisories for most of the UK: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html Interesting that on Monday, they aren't delineating between East and West. Hope that means good news for me | |
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Updraft Admin
Posts : 352 Hi-Five : 6 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 58 Location : Somerset, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:36 am | |
| Keep watching those models one and all High Res NMM now in range, latest showing 960mb. And finally some more detail....... A MODERATE RISK 40% has been issued for parts of Devon & Cornwall extending across much of the South Coast for the likelihood of excessive rainfall and localised thunderstorms in proximity of the centre of a very intense low pressure system. During Monday strong convergence is forecast to persist along a quasi-stationary occlusion extending across the South Devon, Dorset and Hampshire coastline. The persistence of this strong convergence will promote some locally high rainfall totals and the high probability of localised flooding. The main threat will be between 3am on Monday Morning through into Tuesday 3am. A 24 hour period of intermittent and sometimes heavy and persistent rain will give rainfall totals of 30-50mm in worst affected parts of Coastal Dorset and Hampshire. Mean-while under dramatically low upper levels and the wrap around warm air within the core of the low pressure, a cyclonic flow will drive in locally thundery showers across Cornwall and Devon through the day. Due to the cyclonic nature, the odd stretched vorticity induced funnel is a possibility – primarily across more South Western approaches within the warning area Not complaining here i know that much | |
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Updraft Admin
Posts : 352 Hi-Five : 6 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 58 Location : Somerset, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:04 pm | |
| Ok so getting closer now ! Models seem to be set in both track and strength so what you see is what we are going to get i think. Areas in the N/NW and far W look to be at greatest risk with highest wind speeds but anywhere may well see some impressive numbers. Something of note that i have seen is the crazy Deep Layer Shear thats there around midnight in the far SW, its showing at 30 meters per sec, the highest Netw graphics show, it does push east and fade quickly but certainly worth noting, certainly for me as im down there ! Ive decided to head to Lyme Regis. A few reasons with safety being to the for of that. I know the area well, its well lit, parking is close to the sea front and i have good options for viewing ( video/pics ) And theres also a multi option live webcam, yoohoo...im waving http://www.lymeregis.org/webcams/cobb-webcam | |
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Wazza Admin
Posts : 506 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 41 Location : Milton Keynes, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:07 pm | |
| You're spot on the money for this one bud! And you were saying the SW doesn't get any severe weather? | |
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Updraft Admin
Posts : 352 Hi-Five : 6 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 58 Location : Somerset, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:19 pm | |
| Hoping so Wazza, only down side of Lyme is that roads could be better, not the best of routes so will need to take care with that as well. Heres a nice Sat image, showing this system starting to get itsself together as it heads this way.... | |
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Updraft Admin
Posts : 352 Hi-Five : 6 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 58 Location : Somerset, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Mon Nov 08, 2010 12:04 am | |
| Superb link, watch the animation as this storm starts to form, takes on fantastic shape near the end, bit more wrapping and you have a nice " eye " of the storm. Not sure if this is a time sensitive link, it may well be so keep refreshing and watch how things go...amazing http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html | |
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Wazza Admin
Posts : 506 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 41 Location : Milton Keynes, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Mon Nov 08, 2010 1:13 am | |
| Ho wow! Certainly forms a nice shape. Just checked out sat24 too. That link you posted is nice and smooth. It's all quiet out at the moment, deffo the calm before the storm. http://www.sat24.com/ | |
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Updraft Admin
Posts : 352 Hi-Five : 6 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 58 Location : Somerset, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Mon Nov 08, 2010 4:13 am | |
| This animation really is incredible....wow http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon_dag_natt.html | |
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Updraft Admin
Posts : 352 Hi-Five : 6 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 58 Location : Somerset, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Mon Nov 08, 2010 6:45 am | |
| TORRO issue Tornado Watch....
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php | |
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Wazza Admin
Posts : 506 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 41 Location : Milton Keynes, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Mon Nov 08, 2010 11:28 am | |
| That's some beautiful animation there! I reckon the BBC are going to get an ass kicking from this, they haven't even forecast a guff! | |
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Wazza Admin
Posts : 506 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-12 Age : 41 Location : Milton Keynes, UK
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Mon Nov 08, 2010 8:44 pm | |
| Graham Smith currently streaming Live for Netweather! Click on his link (Weatherevents.net) bottom left to watch live footage of the storm in Scotland. | |
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weatherevents.net Admin
Posts : 152 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-14 Location : Fife, Scotland
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Mon Nov 08, 2010 11:23 pm | |
| Cheers Wazza, sorry I didn't post the link on here sooner!! Here's the direct link (to save having to go via my site):
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=storm-watch;sess= | |
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weatherevents.net Admin
Posts : 152 Hi-Five : 4 Join date : 2010-04-14 Location : Fife, Scotland
| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:22 pm | |
| Raw weather logs from yesterdays setup on the Firth of Forth free for anyone interested here:
http://www.weatherevents.net/events/misc/csv/
The file will open in excel. Note the datestamps are in unix EPOCH format. I can probably rustle up a conversion formula to normal GMT time if needed. | |
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| Subject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? | |
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| Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up? | |
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