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 Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?

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bordersweather

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PostSubject: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:02 am

I know it is in FI just now but I am seeing a worrying trend appearing on the GFS from 7th Nov onwards for some extremely damaging wind speeds in Scotland.

Currently the Average Wind is showing as 38mph, the previous run was 51mph - I just thought I would bring this to attention as it may be something to keep an eye on.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:43 am

Good to see this one flagged up early.
I generally run GFS right through once a week but do keep tabs on closer detail during the week. Quite a way out yet and as we all know GFS will change but just how much will this one change that is the question Question

I will add a few graphics later today, SLP and Wind Speeds, but at least we now have a thread up and can monitor it as we get nearer Nov 7th itself.

Maybe this will be the first Winter Storm of note ?
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:52 pm

In general the wind speed seems to be a lot stronger in general from Tomorrow onwards - there are the odd days where currently the GFS is forecasting a lower windspeed - but in general the longer term trend looks to be getting more stormy.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Oct 29, 2010 2:21 am

Just got to look at a few bits on this one, and yes there does seem to be a few storms propping up in the Atlantic. Look at this one here for the 13th...





It is way off yet, but lets see if the GFS proves itself here!

958mb low?.... IT does seem to weaken slightly as it tracks east towards Scotland as most of these seem to, but still a deep ol' depression!
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Oct 29, 2010 5:51 am

I did run GFS through earlier and i have to agree there seems to be a lot of Low Pressure systems progged at the moment. Maybe i misinterpreted the Netw Winter Forecast but for me that gave the impression of reasonbly settled conditions with blocking Highs more prevelant than Lows ?

Really cant rely on GFS beyond maybe 4 days but certainly pointing towards some interesting spells of wet and windy weather. Hope that holds as after such a poor summer with the storms a good few trips to the coast will set me right....bring it on.... bounce
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Oct 29, 2010 10:46 am

Just to add - 18z GFS still showing string winds in FI
currently 45mph - I know it's not accurate but 3 days of the same output I would suggest might well be seeing a trend starting to develop.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:20 am

Most deffo. I was under the same impression as Ju in regards to HP systems blocking out any potential for stormage... scratch in regards also to La Nina.

Just found this on BBC website...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/understanding/la_nina.shtml

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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Oct 30, 2010 1:04 am

As ive just posted on Weekly thread, seeing low to mid 30 wind speeds along the south coast today, maybe not severe but getting up that way.
I think i may do a stand alone thread re the Winter Forecast and our expectations perhaps ?

But as ever im sure we will all be keeping a close eye on GFS during the coming months, lets have something of note to get amongst and of course report/discuss.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Oct 30, 2010 2:47 am

GFS still showing a trend for stupidly high windspeed.....

http://awesomescreenshot.com/0222yc834
http://awesomescreenshot.com/0e02ycg45
http://awesomescreenshot.com/0e12yci0d
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:43 am

Oh im seeing that ok !
Progging 40s and into the 50s at one point Shocked

Gonna have to keep watching this one, well we are of course.
Without wishing chaos and widespread damage it would be nice to see this one hold out.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:25 pm

Still there - still showing the same sort of windspeed although it is up to 59mph now - but now we are getting even more stupid figures....

http://awesomescreenshot.com/0632yv591

Yes that really does say an average windspeed of 78 and 68mph!!

I think that would be classed as an emergency here!
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:32 pm

and the 0z GFS -

http://awesomescreenshot.com/0fe2z1af7
http://awesomescreenshot.com/03e2z1b16
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sun Oct 31, 2010 10:07 pm

Wow!

I'm not sure where I stand on this one now, I mean that really is high windspeeds. The UK hasn't seen speeds like that in a while. Exclamation
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Mon Nov 01, 2010 12:25 am

GFS has been to the pub maybe drunken
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:29 am

There still seems to be indications of some decent wind speeds for early to mid-next week in the 12Z run:



Some decent rainfall totals forecast for Monday evening up this way too, although I often find the GFS a little over-enthisastic with it's rainfall totals. You never know though! Would be nice to see some decent windy weather.. I love lying in bed listening to it howl around the house! Smile I need to crack my station record of 58.8MPH Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Mon Nov 01, 2010 10:23 am

Haha Julian! I deffo reckon the GFS has had a crabbies ginger beer or two! Lol.

I'm gonna try pull up the windspeeds graphic for thurs as I think this is the day for it? Question
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Mon Nov 01, 2010 10:33 am

Hmmm...

It's now looking like next Friday is going to be the more exciting day along the S Coast, with winds averaging 40mph in the channel so far. It is due to a complex Low with multiple centres developing over the north of England, pulling in strong winds. Scotland will also see some of this.

I'll get the graphics up in the morning, see if the charts are different.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Mon Nov 01, 2010 11:15 pm

Hmmm....

It seems that Thurs 11th has now weakened with the LP system weakening and tracking further north.

Next Monday looks better though!
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Tue Nov 02, 2010 1:52 am

Not wanting to repeat myself..but this Thursday maybe bounce

Aside of that still looking at lots of reasonbly Deep Lows pushing in so its looking like a breezy month for sure. Bring it on !
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:40 am

Still not understanding this La Nina thing....

I mean... So far it's looking very wet and very windy! Thought La Nina was settled and dry? scratch
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Wed Nov 03, 2010 1:20 am

Looking at the front page ...WOW affraid
Given that this is less than a week away the odds of this system holding track and strength gets better with every day.
There should be some interesting conditions without doubt, liking it...liking it a lot bounce

Gonna check tide sizes and times right away !
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Wed Nov 03, 2010 1:25 am

Now thats a pain....

Lyme Regis...

0037 Low 0.4
0724 High 4.3
1300 Low 0.5
1951 High 4.2

Good size tides but maybe the wrong times, well they are for me anyway.
Will see what i can do on this one... bounce
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:46 am

Good tide heights mate!

Gonna re check the models tomorrow to see what's what. I finish at 6pm Monday evening so if things hold up I will get out and about for sure. May create a wave at the local lake! lol!
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Nov 04, 2010 2:57 am

Hmmm... GFS models have died off in regards to this Low for the southern half of the UK, but now have it tracking to the north instead. GFS showing no wind for the south but high winds for the north, whereas ECMWF are still showing this low as being large and with high winds in the south too.



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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:04 am

And here is the Met's view of it.



Basically, no one has any idea where it will be, how strong it'll be, or how large it'll be! Suspect
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