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 Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?

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Wazza
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Nov 04, 2010 8:18 pm

And....

It's headed south again!!!! scratch



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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:50 pm

Looks as if every GFS run will have to watched on this one.
Latest one recently issued shows it as 960mb affraid

And it does track in a more southerly direction with wind speeds reaching 50-60mph in some places but 30-40s expected over a large area. Add to that gusts and this could prove to be a signifigant event.

I will wait until the 18z Run is issued and post more graphics then.
But if this does hold i have every intention of getting along the coast somewhere, depending on landfall, tide times and of course someone to take the children to school Rolling Eyes
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:44 pm

Wow! You're deffo the man for this mate! I have zero chance Monday. I mean I do shift work but the day I need off or at least some "unsociable" hours I get 9-5! All I can do is local stuff or take some video etc across the midlands. Mad
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:56 pm

And WeatherOnline's view of this thing....





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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:26 am

Well I'd love to head for the west coast in the mobile lab and see what sort of data I could record in terms of windspeed, as this system comes in.

I think I'd aim for Portree on the Isle of Skye (or somewhere around there). Check out the forecast for *average* windspeed based on today's 12Z GFS:



Unfortunately though, work means I won't be able to chase this, unless it gets pushed back to later on, on Monday afternoon. I guess there's still plenty of time for things to change. Here's hoping it's in my favour. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:03 am

Nice detail again Graham, i think that maybe you are using the graphics just to be lazy though, saves typing eh Rolling Eyes

Models are now starting to agree and be more consistent and latest SLP shows this....yes thats 956mb, so falling in line with Weatheronline.
This really could be something of an event and it would have to be soon that advance warnings are issued maybe ?

I have every intention of getting out with this one affraid



I hope we all get a bit if this one.....!!


Last edited by Updraft on Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:10 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:09 am

As ever i can never manage to post one message and get it all there... drunken

Just a couple of things....may i suggest that if tomorrows early morning runs continue to hold , a new seperate thread is started specifically for this system ?

And finally, Wazza, you sure you cant change you shifts mate. I ask because if you look over to the left at the Met Office forecast for Oxford on Monday you will see windspeeds that will no doubt blow a crisp packet across the road.....yep thats a bracing 7 ( SEVEN ) mph lol!
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:22 am

Yep , me again Suspect

Hadnt thought to check what else was there apart from wind speeds up until now had we. Well obviously lots of very heavy rain but later in the day some pockets of CAPE and LI appear as well, in the SW ( where i am ) Wink

Early days yet.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 6:54 am

Updraft wrote:
Nice detail again Graham, i think that maybe you are using the graphics just to be lazy though, saves typing eh Rolling Eyes

ROFL, actually I just liked the pretty little speed-dial thingos and the fact that for the last two dials, they are flat-out. lol! Oh and yes, I'm lazy too. What a Face

I agree the GFS, UKMO and ECMWF are all now in reasonable agreement about where this LP is heading. The later two aren't forecasting quite as deep a low as the GFS, but still impressive! affraid
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:33 am

Update at 22.30.........18z holds data steady Suspect
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:28 am

Haha Ju! I know! I saw that 7mph earlier and thought it a loada rubbish! It's deffo wrong... I know it! And re the shifts? No luck there mate. I'm out of A/L otherwise I'd take it off.

Loving the Graphics Graham too! Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:30 am

BBC are saying 10mph here Monday and MetO 7?....

What's goin on! scratch
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:20 pm

Ok so little change in the detail im seeing, 0z Run holding things as they have been, similar track and 964mb. And yet again BBC have failed to say a thing, even touched on Sundays weather when this system is on our doorstep scratch

At a loss what to say and think at the moment.
I did speak to Pat Carter and he posted the following detail., not sure of its source...

This means that cyclogenesis increases further as the storm system heads south. Very unusual. The jet streak doesn't lose intensity until after midday Monday.

With the strongest winds always likely closest to the area of the developing low p...ressure closest to the entry point of the jet streak it will need further runs to determine this exact location . However with the sheer strength of this depression there is a likelihood that anywhere across the UK and Ireland will experience severe gales. How strong these gales are likely to be - it is too early to say but certainly worth watching as the timeframe gets closer.

So thats certainly pointing towards a severe weather event, i do need to read a bit about Cyclogenesis, that appears to important with this system.

So thats the latest and im still very confused, if this system does drop another 5-10mb we are looking at the 1987 Hurricane or winds of similar strength...and yet its not worthy of a mention Suspect

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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:25 pm

Just reading up and from the off Cyclogenesis is a key part in the building of any form of Cyclone. Maybe i will leave it there, any more detail pointing towards a possible severe weather event will drive me mad right now confused

I have e-mailed Mike some data and may hear his thoughts during today.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Fri Nov 05, 2010 8:46 pm

Awesome stuff.

It's certainly looking like we are going to have to tie a few bits down like. Hope my roof tiles stay on! Neutral
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PostSubject: hi   Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:30 am

Looking at our first Autumn storm of the season, for me...i think N.Wales West Ireland NW England and SW Scotland I.O.M. will see the strongest winds. Looks a very active Low Pressure nice and deep and ive just set the barometer here in Taunton.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:09 am

There's quite a good write-up by John Holmes of Netweather.tv here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64686-mondays-potential-storm/page__st__68__p__1878338#entry1878338

Sure is sounding very interesting and it's hard not to get a bit excited about. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 7:46 am

Quick update....12z Run holding steady at 964mb.
Waiting on 18z to appear.
Sat here trying to make plans on just where im gonna go overnight Sunday bounce
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 8:15 am

Woohooo it's looking good! I'm on a day shift Monday so I will be out getting myself wet and blown off a hill somewhere Sunday night! Brilliant! Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 8:56 am

I'm just a bit gutted about having to be stuck at work all night, but hopefully it won't have moved too far away I can still catch the tail end of the high-winds early Monday morning if I head for the coast.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:06 am

I'm with ya Graham, If I weren't working Monday I would have headed off down to Ju's place to catch this lot. South coast is going to be great for him. It looks like I am going to get some nasty winds too looking at the iso bars over my area.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:30 am

Wazza you sure you are not about Sunday night mate, just asking Suspect

Oh and 18z Run is also steady as lol!
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:33 am

Ahh well, guess we'll just need to be content with whatever passes our front door Wazza. Smile The 18Z is showing slightly weaker winds on the east coast of Scotland compared to the previous runs. I hope that trend doesn't continue. Would be nice to see some action here on Monday morning as I don't think I could manage a 2 hour drive to the west coast after the night-shift.
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 11:54 am

Ju... If I could pull out some strings you know I would. Going to some fireworks party thingy at the city centre. It's at the main city display but we have tickets for a special dinner as part of the parks trust. Organised by some friends down the road. Real, real bad timing mate. Gutted mate. If i had a day off Monday id be in the car and on the motorway dude straight afterwards.

It finishes at 11, so my camera will be in my bag ready to go and take some video etc afterwards. I have a few places in mind to go to.

Darn! Sad
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PostSubject: Re: Possibility of Damaging Winds coming up?   Sat Nov 06, 2010 11:56 am

And Graham, yes we will have to front door chase this one mate. I'm feelin ur pain too.

I'll be closely watching those models tomorrow and Sunday! What a Face
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