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 UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.

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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sat Jul 03, 2010 9:26 pm

Not sure if it will develop into anything, but there's a little bit of CAPE and favourable LI forecast for tomorrow afternoon up this way. Fingers cross! Like a Star @ heaven
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sat Jul 03, 2010 9:27 pm

Just noticed this too:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html?from=rss&sn=2157
Quote :
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland during Sunday. There is the potential for west or southwest winds to gust between 50 and 60 mph, and 70 mph on hills and exposed coastal areas.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:00 pm

...Scotland, N North Sea...

The core of a strong cyclone will cross N Ireland and Scotland in the early afternoon with some instability produced by strong upper level cooling at the tip of the upper trough. Most of the CAPE should have its origin from strong QG lifting of a potentially unstable layer near the cold front where WV satellite images show a dry intrusion. There will be only a few hundred J/kg CAPE but this will partially overlap with 25 - 30 m/s deep layer shear in the northern parts of the cold front. Low level winds will become very strong (approx. 25 - 30 m/s at 850 hPa) and a lot of severe non-convective gusts are expected to occur in the warm sector region. Near the cold front, gusts may be convectively enhanced and could reach even locally up to 34 m/s. A circular storm-relative hodograph is forecast for the transition region of the cold front / upper trough and low-topped supercells are most likely to occur there. Given strong LLS and low LCL heights, any rotating storm may produce a tornado. The severe wind gust / tornado threat will not last very long as the region with instability should have passed Scotland after 18 UTC.

its gonna be a bit blowy. im already getting some strong gusts down here. must have been something i ate Suspect lol!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:04 pm

Could be promising for us JP! Fingers crossed!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:10 pm

im gonna set the camera away to record and make some more time lapse What a Face think were just gonna get the wind down here. just aswell i had'nt planned to go fishing, would never be able to cast in this wind.

radar looks a right mess over scotland but its needed tho. its gonna be hard to spot anything on the radar in that lot tho. i'll keep the fingers crossed for ya and hope you see something good Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:12 pm

Needed here in the SE too. Grass is completely brown. Number of grass and woodland fires now at risk
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:28 pm

think everywhere could do with a soaking. we have a risk of fires here to but there set by the locals, lol. go to the top of the hill outside the house and look around sunderland you'll see atleast two burning at once, gaurenteed. they're a bunch of animals here!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:16 pm

Lol!

Yeah things are a little dry with risks of field fires everywhere. I had to give the garden a good soaking yesterday as it was looking a little unhappy. I think I heard someone say the other day that it hasn't been this dry in the summer since in the 70's. Sure it's been since then really.

Scotland in for a good soaking though. Weather warnings issued as JP said.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Mon Jul 05, 2010 12:01 am

SkyWarn UK Alert Status: Convective Weather Warning (RED) {Convetive Weather Advisory (AMBER)}
Regions: Southeast Scotland, Southwest Scotland, Northeast Scotland, Northwest Scotland (Northeast England, Northern Ireland). (Click HERE to open a map showing the regions)
Issued: 1332BST, Sunday 4th July.
Updated:
Threat(s): Severe wind gusts, tornadoes, heavy rain.

*In effect until 1900BST, Sunday 4th July.

*Spotter Activation is requested.

*The centre of a deep area of low pressure will pass just to the north of Scotland through the early afternoon hours, trailing an active cold front through the region. Destabilisation of the airmass will occur INVOF upper trough where a dry intrusion is evident, leading to low end CAPE, mainly less than 400 J/Kg. Very windy conditions are expected throughout the period, though INVOF cold front gusts may be convectively enhance leading to some severe wind gusts, with 65 knot gusts, and perhaps higher in isolated areas, seem possible. Dry intrusion of air along the cold front will increase lapse rates, and deep layer shear of up to 60 knots exists accross the region with helicities of up to 150m^2/s^2 may give rise to some rotating updrafts, perhaps a risk of low-topped supercells along the cold front. Low-level shear peaking at 35-40 knots in the lowest 1km and low LCL heights may well support tornadogenesis with any rotating updraft capable of producing strong tornadoes - T4-T5 (F2) seems possible. Fast storm motion could also lead to long-track tornadoes. Heavy rainfall with accumlations in excess of 25mm is possible. {A Convective Weather Advisory surrounds the warning region, where the risk is somewhat less}.

*Spotters are requested to report: Wind gusts in excess of 55mph, wall cloud/funnel cloud/tornado.

*Next update: This warning will be allowed to expire at 7pm Sunday.

coutesy of skywarn UK.

could be a fun afternoon lol!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Mon Jul 05, 2010 12:57 am

Wooo!

Already had some thunder today and the wind was nearing gale force here for a while, thought I had teleported to a Floridian hurricane for a second with mega precipitation.

On a side note.....ef2 tornadoes possible?
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion, June.   Mon Jul 05, 2010 1:49 am

Mari! Let's have some photos girl!

Radar looks good, good ol storm that one.
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