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 UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10

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Updraft
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 12:53 am

Also signs of things starting West of Durham as well.

The areas just posted on the graphic for Scotland are intensifying even more as i type, very impressive radar returns now showing.

And nothing here in the S/SW No No Sad


Edit....Met Office have also issued Flash Warnings for the Grampian area of Scotland for Heavy Rain/Storms.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 1:18 am

So .......



One graphic doesnt mean widespread storms but this may well need watching a little more closely between now and Sunday 18.00 of which this applies to.
Im not sure i can remember when ive seen such high CAPE and LI numbers shown on GFS ?
The GFS runs are now starting to look more consistant for this time frame and given that this is only now at +60 maybe there is some hope of something.
CAPE generally is shown is around the 1400-1500 and LI is at -5.

All eyes on GFS Suspect
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 1:54 am

Really looks like it's tipping it down up NW of Aberdeen right now! There's some purple bits on there!!



Shame there isn't anything on the boil here at the moment. I can't see any lightening mixed in with that heavy precip up north either.

Oh well, at least it's a start. The clouds are starting to so show some convective growth here but nothing like we've had in the past and unless it keeps building rapidly, I don't think we'll get any action here.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 4:03 am

Yep just had a brief look at the radar, midlands seeing some heavy downpours springing up!

Those numbers do look interesting Sunday, a very close keen eye will need to be kept on this.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 10:19 am

Well...it was roasting toasting here today! Probably would have enjoyed it more if I wasn't extremely hungover and carting heavy bags and a laptop around Glasgow after college. Laughing

Started off foggy and muggy, really clammy and then the sun came out but it was extremely humid. Towards the evening mega solid cumulonimbus popped up everywhere but no anvils to be spotted, but boy - fresh white cauliflower structure indeed!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 7:21 pm

Fantastic Marianne,

Sounds like you got a lot more structure than me down here at least. It was a very humid day yesterday, and having a hangover deffo wouldn't have helped!

Same sort of areas today by the looks of things. See how things pan out for us southerners tomorrow. Basketball
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 9:26 pm

Well... not looking as good by the seems of things, same areas again as today and yesterday! JP has the best shot here.

Precip and Cape tally up with the NE areas, with nothing forecast further south. I'm thinking these are only going to be small thundery downpours like we have seen, so unless anything changes dramatically, I shall sit this one out. Certainly not worth at the moment burning loads of fuel for the possibility of well... not much!

I will have my cam out tomorrow though anyhow!



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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sat May 22, 2010 10:08 pm

Sat loop, some stuff bubbling up over the NE areas.

http://www.sat24.com/mysat/780-560-METE_RGB-12-12-1_europa1500m-ano_1005221000.gif
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sun May 23, 2010 12:31 am

Marianne i think youve had far too much going on up that way of late !
Maybe quite unusual in that over the last month most of the Convective weather has been far more North than would be expected ?
Ive certainly been disappointed with how little there has been further South and today and tomorrow certainly look to be following the same pattern. Not a cloud in the sky here so absolutely no hope of anything short term.

Ideally would like to see some Fronts or Troughs moving across the country which given the current heat would certainly get things going on a more widespread front.
Im agreeing with Wazza for tomorrow in that im not expecting anything of note anywhere within range that really would be worth getting after so for me Sunday will be spent on a boat fishing off Porlock in the Bristol Channel.

Latest GFS for today and tomorrow does look favourable for some areas but again further South loses out badly. And theres nothing in the region of the 1200 and the -5s which were shown a few days ago.

Would love to see a quick breakdown of this current hot spell, then we would see some widespread storms. Never mind..... Neutral
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sun May 23, 2010 12:41 am

Not weather related but would like to mention the new Links that Wazza has added on the left of the screen which will be worth a look at.

Mikes site which some of you may well already be familiar with is there. Even though its now Dry Season with Mike im sure there will be updates and new items/images added so feel free to browse and of course Mike is always grateful for any comments you care to leave.

There is also a recently launched venture by Michael Phelps in the States which offers Severe Weather tours with a more personnal touch. Tours will consist of 3 people only and as such there is NO down time as when the Storms are not firing then its out and about with the camera taking in some sights.

And finally a link to Chasertv which im sure some of us have already used during
this current Tornado Season. When the storms are active there are always plenty of good quality Streams up of which some will have audio. Check out the Chaser wall which will allow you to view ALL Live Streams at the same time so just click into one when you see something of interest !

Nice additions Wazza, looking good right now Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sun May 23, 2010 8:24 am

do i have a storm forecast here ?
Sun 21:00 25 °c 3 mph 741 j/kg -4

just copied it from metcheck...so should i be prepared for possible storms on sunday?

finally something to get excited about lol

sorry for short, unorganised reply...just my laptop is very iffy so trying to do as much as i can in one go!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Sun May 23, 2010 11:44 am

I think there was a whole one cloud in the sky here today. Small, cute and fluffy.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Mon May 24, 2010 2:07 am

well metcheck showed a storm risk at 3pm lol! but not a cloud in the sky here, its a gorgeous day here, about 25 degrees, and im enjoying it to the full Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Mon May 24, 2010 9:59 am

I hear ya there Mark!

Tomorrow is set to be even hotter, could even reach 30! And the odd shower has not been ruled out either. I'm working so that's a bugger!

Back to today, temp reached 29C in Central Milton Keynes! And in may??? affraid
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Mon May 24, 2010 10:39 am

Hotter?

Oh why do I need to go to college! It sounds like tomorrow won't be a good day for 17 hairdryers to be going in a very small, un-airconditioned class!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Mon May 24, 2010 6:36 pm

There really is no escaping the heat then for you is there! What a Face
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 17/05/10   Mon May 24, 2010 7:23 pm

well what looked to be a good weekend storm wise was totally rubbish Exclamation
temps at 25c and CAPE and LI where looking good but no fronts or troughs to get things going, just a ridge of high pressure.
one storm did fire up yesterday afternoon towards berwick which produced a few flashes but to far from me to see anything.

i did have some convection which produced some nice cauliflower cumulus but that was it Mad such a waste of instability Mad
i got some shots of the cauliflower which im gonna upload soon but all in all a disapointing weekend, although i did get a touch of the old sunburn sunny
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