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 UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10

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Updraft
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Sun Apr 25, 2010 12:58 am

Nice update and graphics there Wazza.
Certainly stiill looking favourable for a few storms tomorrow. Will be continuing to look at NMM from here on in i think.

Personally i think theres a chance of things from maybe midday onwards as the Front pushes across the UK. Im thinking that anywhere East of Oxford maybe holds the best chance given that the Front will have passed and daytime temps will be that bit higher a little later in the day. Included in that i would also look at the Midlands as well with the far S/SE looking good early evening.

Not really seeing anything major as far as size/amount of any storms that do develop.
Will keep reviewing things and decide just how far im prepared to travel tomorrow morning.

Great to see a favourable set up and general concensus seems to be that there will be some T/Storms at long last.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Sun Apr 25, 2010 1:24 am

Latest NMM models leaning towards the far S/SE giving the best chance at the moment.
Instability looks to be present from 9am here in the SW but Lapse Rates will be poor and its during the afternoon that things start to look promising.

So at the moment im way out of the picture for anything but as we know every Model Run is likely to put a different slant in things.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Sun Apr 25, 2010 7:20 am

Yep agreed there mate. Need to look in the morning and see what's what. I'm possibly going to position myself on some high ground tomorrow to the south of me I know of and see where things are at.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:59 am

Estofex have now included parts of the British Isles in their Storm Forecast for possible thunderstorms, but things aren't sounding overly promising:

In the wake of the cold front, diurnal heating and upper level cooling will lead to some 400 - 800 J/kg SBCAPE over the British Isles. Less than 10 m/s deep layer shear should be in place which is not favourable for organised storms. A few briefly organised multicells may produce small hail and gusty winds. Overall lightning frequency should be rather low.

Courtesy of http://www.estofex.org

Still, I'm trying to stay positive that you two might get to see some action. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Sun Apr 25, 2010 8:06 pm

Nice one there Graham.

Looking like it'll deffo be showers, nothing more. Had a heavy-ish downpour just now that has reflected on radar but that's all it was.

And as if by magic, Cape and Li numbers have dropped off... again!

Image courtesy of Netweather.tv

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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:30 am

well atleast something did materialise today. over the past 2 hours there was a T-storm detected close to the wash which lasted for around half an hour. got some pics from wee cells that tried to pop up earlier but just ended up flopping in the end Crying or Very sad
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Mon Apr 26, 2010 7:43 am

Well I got a mega downpour, heaviest rain i've seen of the year, one flash and one rumble.

I really was hoping for more, but oh well. Hopefully something better will come around soon.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Mon Apr 26, 2010 10:21 am

Well it was a big fat non-event for me (although I wasn't really expecting much over my way, but I live in hope!). All we got out of it was some wet washing on the clothes line, thanks to a couple of heavy showers that stopped as quickly as they started! Smile

JP and Marianne, glad to hear there was some activity your way, even if it wasn't brilliant. I'd be happy with one good clap of thunder. Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Mon Apr 26, 2010 4:13 pm

Yep I was watching those thundery showers pop up over the wash whilst I was sat on some high ground over Dunstable. I saw some intense updrafts which I have pics of to post later, as well as some nice rainfall. Lovely instability though. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 19/04/10   Mon Apr 26, 2010 8:46 pm

Unlike me to be moaning about the weather as you know but as for yesterday.....pffft !
Barely a drop of rain all day and certainly not a hope of any storms at all. Only saw a few very weak updrafts and most of those were partly obscured by all the low cloud that was about.
Sat here ready with cam/vid ect ready to go but ended up losing all hope by 15.00, i did go out though, yep down the pub. Certainly still a bit fuzzy sat here at the moment. It must have been something they put in the beer maybe drunken

But generally it appears very little happened country wide which is nothing unusual i suppose. Must keep reminding ourselves it is still only April of course.

Great to see a few of you posting as well, it will take time but stick with it if you can and im sure things will improve over time. Nice one one and all cheers

So will look at this weeks mini forecast very soon and get the thread started.

Happy days !
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