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 GFS fun.. Stormgasm in the future realms of model prediction

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Kent Weather

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PostSubject: GFS fun.. Stormgasm in the future realms of model prediction   Sun Apr 17, 2011 11:33 am

Posted this on the FB group for MetweatherUK & shall post on here also for those who foolishly are not already on the group. This post will also be more indepth.

A quick post before i go to bed but the 12/18z GFS on Saturday showing CAPE/LI potential seems very VERY interesting for in particular Wednesday onwards. Quite extraordinary instability for April which would be based on the low to (almost) mid 20's. Worth noting it is for this coming Weds onwards so dont get your hopes up just yet.

Attached (hopefully) are 2 charts of particular interest but I MUST make one thing crystal clear. GFS has provided (as mentioned) temperatures climbing up to 24°C locally for some areas of England for the period of interest. I Strongly believe the instability values on these charts are based purely on the temperatures.

I'm honestly too tired (1.25am at time of writing) to take full notice of the pressure charts to look for associated fronts but Saturday may have a trigger with the instability to initate storms.. BUT

I Did see a similar looking set of instability charts last year which were also appearing to be around very warm temperatures, and also had a very strong cap and no forcing mechanism to break the cap and set off the storms. I honestly believe this maybe a repeat scenerio from experience so I hold no faith in the possibility of this setup. Even less given exactly how far away this setup is.

At face value? 1200j/kg CAPE, -5 Li. Moderate to potentially strong storms capable of producing rather large hail - more so by UK standards. Stormgasmic. Alas - confidence rating currently = -5%
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PostSubject: Re: GFS fun.. Stormgasm in the future realms of model prediction   Sun Apr 17, 2011 11:34 am

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PostSubject: Re: GFS fun.. Stormgasm in the future realms of model prediction   Mon Apr 18, 2011 9:20 am

Couldn't have put that better myself!

As we know with these runs, we have to be cautious to what we see especially this far our.

What will be in our favour is LP to the SW of the UK, swinging in warm temperatures. This could swing in some stuff from northern France, or spark a shower over the UK. Need to look at the Cap too to see what that's all about.

Thanks for posting, more to come!
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PostSubject: Re: GFS fun.. Stormgasm in the future realms of model prediction   Mon Apr 18, 2011 9:50 am

And here is a detailed look towards midweek...

Storms are looking quite likely! At the moment I am only looking at Wednesday to keep it "local", ie not looking too far ahead. Things are looking good for the southern half of the UK for storms to break out, but as has been said above by Shaun, we need to be a bit closer to the time to be certain. But here are the graphics for Wednesday. Lapse rates are ok, instability is there, convergence is there, a bit of a Cap but the numbers are fairly low. Hope this can be broken!

If anything does look promising then I will attempt a chase and will stream LIVE on MetWeatherUK!











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