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 UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10

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PostSubject: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:54 am

So whats in store weather wise for the coming week ?
Overall the picture is for a more unsettled spell with High Pressure getting pushed away by weather systems pushing in from the W/SW and the Atlantic.
Temps will rise but with that we will also see wet and windy conditions in many areas, cant have it all i suppose !

So to add a little detail, will give brief info for each day as GFS sees it on todays 18z Run for 15.00 and add a few SLP graphics at the end.

Starting with Monday of course, it will be the last day where we see the colder temps before things change quickly later in the day. High Pressure is still present so after a chilly/frosty start most will see a bright sunny day with temps ranging from 5 in the north to 10/11 in the south. Winds will be light generally.
Overnight temps will drop to maybe 2-3 in some areas but things change as milder/wetter weather pushes in from the west.

Tuesday will start wet for many and quite breezy along the western side of the country. The wind and rain will spread across all of the UK during the day with some of the rain being quite heavy. Temps will be slightly higher so in the north perhaps 8-9 and 14-15 in more southern/western regions. Winds could touch 30mph along western and southern coasts. Overnight temps maybe up to 10 deg.

Wednesday also sees us under the influence of the Lows centered off Iceland, 984mb, things still quite windy with some rain/showers scattered about as well but not as wet as Tues. Temps again milder than of late with 9 to 16 likely. Overnight temps drop slightly but still not too bad.

Into Thursday and we see only subtle changes with the Lows to the north weakening a little so those isobars not quite so tight and again a scattering of showers across the country. Temps holding around the same levels. Signs of a Low winding up off to the SW though. Overnight temps ranging from 4-11 deg.

Friday is currently looking quite interesting with that Low really tightening up and centering itself just W/NW Ireland during the day. Showing as dropping down to 972mb on this run so could well get very windy particularly along the western side of the country. Windspeeds showing as 35-40mph. As is expected with such systems we will see rain push right across the country again some of it quite heavy. Temps continue in the 9 to 16 range. Overnight temps 4-12 deg.

Into Saturday and the Low continues to track in a northerly direction keeping its intensity so northern areas and Scotland will see the strongest winds, 35-40 mph showing at present. The majority of any rain will also be in more northern areas but still a chance of showers as you move south. Winds falling much lighter in the south as the day progresses. Little change in temps.

And of course wouldnt be finished without checking for any CAPE and LI during the week. Sadly nothing to report on that front at all.
As ever every GFS run will change.

A few graphics to show detail, SLP charts for Mon, Weds and Fri, all at 15.00 and also taken from todays 18z Run.







So thats my little overview for the coming week. ....have a good week Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:07 pm

Thanks for the detailed synopsis Very Happy
Here it is currently sitting at 0.3 and I am sitting here patiently waiting for it to hit 0.....
yes it really is 3:07am Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:56 pm

Just logged on here at what is a far more normal hour than the previous post, i mean 03.07 Suspect !!

Need to check the temp as weve had a real good frost overnight and everything is white outside at the moment, forecasts did mention -4 for some rural areas here in the SW. I have already seen frost on 2 occasions this Autumn but this is certainly the first real one.....brrrrr !
Not a cloud in the sky either.

Make the most todays weather, gonna get wetter and windier.

EDIT.....so thats down to -4 last night and still showing as -2 at 8am..... Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:45 pm

Wow, that LP is really looking interesting for Friday, but with it being 5 days out still, the GFS might be over-stating the depth of the LP. Either way, looks like a wet and windy week ahead (apart from today)!! Nice analysis Ju.. gotta give ya a hi-five for that!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:03 pm

That was a great overview there Ju man!

Friday does look like the most interesting low we have seen to date, and looking at the detail it's looking like the south coast could be a good shout for some nice waves at high tide.

It's good to see some lows starting to make an appearance!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:08 pm

As expected its a wet and gloomy day today. Not a hint of sunshine and barely a break from lightish rain. Entertainly 3 rather active children indoors is proving just a little testing Evil or Very Mad

GFS is showing Fridays Low Pressure system as something a little weaker now but will keep tabs and may still take a look around the South Coast if seas are rough enough..time to get wet again bounce

Finally something ive seen today re Sundays overnight temps, as i mentioned we had a chilly - 4 here....

Brit Chills Record

Parts of britain suffered their coldest October temps on record this weekend.
The mercury plunged to -6.6 in Levens Hall, Cumbria and Sennybridge, Powys.
West Freugh in SW Scotland saw -5.2 beating its old record low ( -5.1) set in 1993. Residents in Trawsgoed, Wales, trembled in - 4.7C.

Met Office Forecaster Helen Chivers ( should be shivers perhaps !!) said " In most places it was extremely cold, well below freezing. Parts of Wiltshire had the coldest October temps since 1997.

Snow anyone lol!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:21 am

lol! afro

For October that is extremely cold! This kinda goes with what our new member "bordersweather" has posted up a topic about. Global "Cooling" surely?...

And her name should be Shivers! lol!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Wed Oct 27, 2010 5:37 am

Not seen a glimpse of sun all day here, dark now so thats kinda it for today now i think rabbit
Hoping its a bit better tomorrow.

I will add my opinions to the Global Warming thread but need a bit of time to get down what i feel on that one, certainly an immotive subject.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:07 pm

Netweather Alert issued for Scotland......

Weather type:
Heavy Rain


Alert risk period:
26/10/10 20:30 until 28/10/10 06:00


Alert details:
A moist southwesterly flow will bring further spells of persistent heavy rain across northern and western Scotland over the next 24 hours or so, bringing totals of 25-40 mm quite widely across the area by Thursday morning, with totals of up to 50 mm over higher ground. This large amount of rain falling on already saturated ground may lead to localised flooding. Please refer to the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) website for further information on flood warnings in these areas.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:42 pm

Some reasonable CAPE and LI numbers showing in the Warned area in Scotland so certainly a chance of a T/Storm mixed in.
Happening up North again and not down here No

Im not a jealous type though Evil or Very Mad
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:24 am

It certainly does look like a moist one in Scotland. Just about to check on that weekend Low that is due.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:53 am

Well, it looks like the NW of the country will see the strongest winds, as the Low will track North clipping the west coast of Scotland. It'll still be breezy everywhere, with average wind speeds down this neck of the woods (SE) to be around 20mph.

So, nothing of real note for the south yet, but for our Northern friends in Scotland it'll be a windy one.

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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:59 am

And wind speeds. I mean looking at this, the south coast for you Julian could be ok, average wind speeds at the surface being around 30mph, so gusts could be stronger. West Scottish coasts will be on a higher average, so certainly some rough coastlines here.

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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:10 am

Doesnt look too bad for down here does it, too bad meaning maybe bad enough of course scratch
Yep that makes sense to me anyway !
Need to check High Tides as well , Peak Winds + High Tide = More Fun !!

Not sure if i will be able to get out as i have the children but if it look sgood enough then an extra effort will be made for sure.

May need to nail down any loose objects in the North perhaps Rolling Eyes
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:21 am

Yeah it looks good - with a cold front pushing across too. Certainly the most interesting weather of late. I mean 972 low aint bad. Shame the centre is off the Scottish coast, needs to be down here.

High tide will be the fun-est for sure! Maybe a nice sea wall to get the camera wet again?.... What a Face
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:58 am

Maybe a case of a missed chance on the S Coast today.
Very little rain and good wind speeds showing during today. Seeing mid 30's along Cornwall and low 30's across S Devon which is my main target area.

Would have been ideal, high tide 11.30ish, plenty of wind behind it and no rain either, whos idea was it to have kids and half term holidays No
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:25 am

Not sure if this will be seen or apply to anyone but an area of reasonable instability is approaching SW Wales as i type at 21.24. Some isolated showers are showing that certainly have a bit about them. GFS show CAPE values up to 450 and LI values at -2 exactly where these showers are.
Lapse Rates for 800-500 are 30 as well so you never know.

Not that im anywhere near there anyway Crying or Very sad
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:09 pm

Sorry for being quiet the past week. We were through on the west-coast of Scotland, staying in a Cottage. Needless to say, it chucked it down and the wind howled most of the time. affraid

I recorded some decent wind speeds back home yesterday too, clocking 43.4mph in the early hours of the morning.

Ju, interesting to see a bit of CAPE around. I see the GFS is showing a wee bit off the coast of Cornwall tomorrow, with some sub-0 LI as well. Not sure it will amount to much though but we can only hope!

On a non-weather note, most of Scotland, North England and Northern Ireland lost ADSL broadband last night (including me):

http://bbc.in/ciwKt9

Took my fifeweather site down for it's longest outage yet this year. Ahh, good old BT hey?! Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Nov 01, 2010 10:18 am

That's a half decent gust there Graham!

I saw that area of CAPE too Julian, I was in bed then though so missed that!

Just noticed there has been a UKASF warning issued for T/Storms.... gonna check it out! What a Face
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Nov 01, 2010 11:42 am

About to turn in but i saw the UKASF warning myself. Nothing else showing on TORRO or Netweather. But having looked at GFS and High Res NMM i can see why. You wont get storms when there is 50-100 CAPE and LI at crazy + 8 to +16 numbers scratch

So totally unsure what to think about this one at the moment, UKASF must have seen something there but GFS/NMM do not support that at all. Not saying they are wrong as they know far more than i do but basic numbers just do not add up. BUT i will be watching as today progresses for sure study
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Mon Nov 01, 2010 11:01 pm

I agree - thunderstorms now??? Doubt it! Neutral
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 25/10/10   Tue Nov 02, 2010 1:38 am

Ok its only 2.35 but im still at a total loss as to how/where UKASF have got that warning from. As GFS and NMM have said there is nothing there at all both energy and stability wise, nothing scratch

Even behind this front there is only very very low numbers and thats currently 200 miles away off western Scot/ Ire. Yes there were some torrential downpours in parts of Scot earlier and maybe now as well including some of Ire but storms and possible Nados ??

Yes theres a few hours of heating still to come but unless things change very quickly...well...i really dont know..... lol!
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