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 UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.

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PostSubject: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:00 am

A friend just posted this on my FB wall:

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php



Quote :
TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/016

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 12:25GMT on Tuesday 7th September 2010

Valid from/until: 12:25-2000GMT on Tuesday 7th September 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Much of England

Wales

Eastern Eire

Much of N Ireland

S & Cent Scotland

THREATS

Hail 10-15mm diameter; wind gusts to 45-50mph; CG lightning; isolated tornadoes

SYNOPSIS

Upper trough will approach from the west with an unstable, moist airmass in place across much of the area, behind a northward moving occluded front, which is currently across central Scotland. Showers and thunderstorms have developed within the unstable airmass, due to diurnal heating and the approach of the trough. Shear is sufficient for organised multicells capable of marginally severe wind and hail. Low-level shear is not too high, but the combination of low LCLs and marginal shear means isolated tornadoes are possible, especially across the northern portions of the area.

I'll be nothing short of gutted if this kicks off big style whilst I'm stuck in Surrey!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Tue Oct 05, 2010 9:54 am

Ah now that is interesting!

Not to be disappointed Graham, does say much of the UK and we are in for showery activity down this way. You aren't too far from me either! I've not had time to check any graphs etc on this one but I'll deffo look in the morning. Need to check the location of that trough.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 06, 2010 5:03 am

A lot of convection here, some great anvils and one with a massive overshooting top! Great time for my camera to break.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 06, 2010 6:21 am

Just had some nice lightning in the dark!

Minus any thunder. 0-o
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 06, 2010 7:27 pm

Ahhh shame re. the camera!

You have had more action this year than we lot in the south could dream of! lol!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Thu Oct 07, 2010 7:32 pm

Well temps are certainly on the mild side! 21C tomorrow in October! Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:09 am

Could well see 22-23 in the SE during Saturday Embarassed
Wouldnt go as far to say its an Indian Summer though, having said that, aside of a few chilly nights and 2 frosts so far it hasnt been cold for October has it.
Mid teens in general which isnt bad at all, maybe a touch above average ?

Ive just been looking at a few SAT images and have found something that REALLY needs posting up, Its right up there with anything ive seen, quite an incredible image of a very large Low Pressure system sat in the Atlantic. Not sure if its one of the old Hurricane/Tropical Depressions or not, will try to find out.

Will get them posted in a few mins Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:18 am

Right, not a lot of detail needed. The SAT image and SLP speak for themselves.
I will try to find a bit more detail and just where this is headed !

SLP...



And that SAT image....WOW !!!



How can you not be impressed with something like that Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:25 am

And heres the detail of just whats there. Ive assuming this is going to weaken or isnt heading our way. Im onto this one now so will look at SLP's a few days out.

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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:35 am

GFS = No

Enough said.
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:42 am

Wow! That's a real nice Low. I looked at my iPhone app this morning for the next few days and it didn't show up anything. So that kinda tallies up.

I wonder if that would be an ex US storm? May see if I can find out if it was. Have to tap up a few peeps on FB. George Kourounis may have some info?

Certainly impressive. Hi-Five (Borat stylee) for you on that one mate, coz I can!!! rabbit
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Sun Oct 10, 2010 1:23 am

Well looking at the latest charts, it's looking like HP is starting to dominate the weather early next week, which is set to provide some clear conditions with a bit of luck. Temps in low teens so it certainly won't be summertime condition, but if it's dry and sunny, I won't be complaining. Smile
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Sun Oct 10, 2010 2:07 am

Just not been able to get this low cloud cleared from here today despite forecasts saying it should. Been looking at SAT images through the day and seeing plenty of movement in the atmosphere but inland there seems to be very little happening with this murk just sitting there. Coastal regions seeing some brightness in the S/SE and the W side of the country.
Starting to see an Easterly flow take a hold slowly which appears to be set in place for the majority of next week. As Graham has said High Pressure does build giving settled conditions generally but temps do fall signifigantly as mentioned.
Yet another non-descript period of weather with little of interest for us.
Lost hope of any T/Storms now, a blank year. Hoping the winter throws some nice deep Lows our way and yes lets have some snow as well !
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:56 am

Yeah that murk was supposed to clear but didn't.

Check out today though! Warm sunshine with clear blue skies. Temp 20C as well! You can deffo feel that nip in the air though from that easterly. And that sets the theme for next week. Colder air with this High moving in as has been mentioned. Temps dropping to a daytime high of 12C! Bbrrrrr! Neutral
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:08 am

Well no sunshine here today at all. The whole day has looked like this from sunrise:



In fact if it wasn't for the timestamp, one would be forgiven for thinking my weathercam was broken! Smile

Here's hoping tomorrow we get to see some sun before winter is really upon us. Very cold up here today as well. Like you say Wazza, a real bite to the air now. I'm thinking it's almost time to crack back out the thermal underwear! Rolling Eyes
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:14 am

Graham, did i see a typing error there, was that thermal underwear or did you not mean something else No
Sadly its all down hill from here with the weather, certainly temp wise.
Still looking for that first BIG winter Low to come crashing ashore. Not thermals but waterproofs for me then,,,,,bring it on rabbit
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 13, 2010 2:08 am

I've not posted here for a while so I really should check in. Sorry for the absence Embarassed

It's gotten notably cooler here also and personally? I am loving it. With GFS and ECM giving a continued tease of a northerly at some point in the next 7-14days - though granted it remains at that time scale for a period now but the consistency I feel is paramount. It's a real pleasure to see.

I Prefer summer for the thunderstorms but there's also the clean, crisp, sharp air that comes along such as now and in the coming days I suspect.

I run the risk of enjoying this cooler weather too much though as something I've not seen mentioned model wise is the fact that agreed, we have high pressure gel-ing it's way around north of the UK and is hinted at forming some form of Greenland or Icelandic high pressure but more recently a low pressure appears to run around the top of the high and enhancing the possible northerly to a certain degree (final positioning dependent of course).

SHOULD that happen then are we looking at the possibility of the LP dropping down the North Sea for a time introducing some pretty darn cold winds - even for October!

Snow wise? Depends on any northerly. At best right now and really pushing the boat out - tops of Scottish mountains, but snow's not worth mentioning when there's other factors left to play out. Such as the 7-14 day time scale for one and it's October lol.

Still nice trends appearing overall. Very pleasing. Shame about the cloud!!!!
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 13, 2010 7:16 am

Updraft wrote:
Graham, did i see a typing error there, was that thermal underwear or did you not mean something else No
Sadly its all down hill from here with the weather, certainly temp wise.
Still looking for that first BIG winter Low to come crashing ashore. Not thermals but waterproofs for me then,,,,,bring it on rabbit

LOL, no typo there Ju, I really did mean thermal underwear lol!

KW, a hi-five to ya for a nice analysis of what we could be in for.

On a totally separate note, StormChasers Season 4 is released tomorrow (for the lucky folk in the US anyway).
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:21 pm

Thank you WeatherEvents ^5! And Kudos on the huge publicity you have gained recently. Where was the visit to Kent though? lol
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:38 pm

Many thanks KW! You're right though, a visit to kent was sorely lacking in the tour! The closest we got was Southampton (not really even vaguely close!). Hopefully it won't be the last time I'm involved in such a tour so maybe next time!?! Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:40 pm

Give me a heads up where and I'd see if I can get out that way myself Razz
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PostSubject: Re: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports & Discussion, WC 3rd Oct.   Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:19 am

Definitely! I'm sure I'll make plenty of noise about it on here if/when it does happen! ROFL Very Happy
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