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 Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

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jp
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PostSubject: Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes   Sat Sep 04, 2010 3:30 am

Latest discussion on tropical storm Fiona:


TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 39 KT AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME
RATHER THIN NEAR THE CENTER...WITH THE CIRCULATION OF FIONA ALSO
TAKING ON AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
DRAMATICALLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT TIME. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION...IT WOULD
NOT BE A SURPRISE IF FIONA DECAYED FASTER THAN THE FORECAST BELOW.

FIONA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 020/11 KT. THE
MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW ON BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA
IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED AS
THE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.0N 66.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 30.6N 65.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 35.2N 63.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 38.1N 61.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Courtesy of the National Hurricane Centre.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes   Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:14 am

With Earl now a distant memory the focus is on 2 areas, one in the atlantic and the other in the gulf of mexico. The area in the atlantic is the remnants of Gaston with ongoing thunderstorms the NHC has issued a 70% chance of gaston reforming into a tropical cyclone again over the next 36-48 hours.
The area in the GOM has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical depression or even a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

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PostSubject: Re: Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes   Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:47 pm

Nice updates JP - keep us informed!! Very Happy
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes   Tue Sep 07, 2010 10:55 pm

So we now have tropical storm Hermine positioned over southern texas. She made landfall last night with tropical storm force winds of between 39-73mph. Her current track is taking her up through central Texas and into Oklahoma but she is due to become a tropical depession by tomorrow with lots of rain.

The remenants of Gaston still live on but today only have a 20% chance of reforming as it collides with unfavorable conditions (dry air)

There are another 2 areas of slight interest with one placed to the west of the Cape Verde islands and the other to the east both with a 10% chance of formation but the NHC think this is unlikley.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes   Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:39 pm

Apoligies for the lack of info during hurricanes Igor, Karl and Julia. been busy decorating and fishing Very Happy

Karl made landfall in Mexico and has currently claimed 7 lives due to flash flooding. Karl has now dissapated.

Julia is now a tropical Storm in the Atlantic but at one stage was a CAT 4 hurricane along with Igor. This was the first time two CAT 4 hurricanes had been in the Atlantic at the same time since 1926.

Igor now a CAT 1 hurricane, made landfall in Bermuda last night and tropical storm force wind's are still being felt on the island. the NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for newfoundland.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

If this area develops it will be called Lisa.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes   Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:56 pm

Fantastic update there JP, no worries about not being around, we all have other stuff to do other than weather eh!

I read up about Igor, and interesting fact about two hurricanes being in the Atlantic together too. Certainly hotting up.
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PostSubject: Re: Daily Forecast Discussions for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes   Tue Sep 21, 2010 3:53 am

most of these systems are steering way off into the Atlantic away from the coast...just about all of them have veered NE...would be interesting to get some details of what dominant systems are steering them away.
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